Yooour New England Patriots!

Giants Spoil Super Bowl Again, 21-17

2012-02-06T02:45:00.000-05:00

The good news is that if the Patriots play the Giants next year, it means they made the Super Bowl again. The bad news... if the trend continues, they'll lose by five points next time. The Giants literally made a few more plays than the Patriots and notched a 21-17 win in Super Bowl XLII... I mean XLVI. The loss makes the Patriots 3-4 in the Super Bowl, and sends them back to the drawing board to prepare for season 13 of Tom Brady's career.

The Patriots offense missed opportunities in the first half -- a foolish safety taken by Tom Brady, and a blocked pass on third down that forced a field goal instead of a touchdown. And then they couldn't do enough in the second half -- scoring just seven points on the first drive, having a bad pass get intercepted, and losing a golden opportunity on Wes Welker's key drop. And in the end, those mistakes and missed opportunities, coupled with the inability to take advantage of bad penalties and fumbles by New York, led to the loss.

Aside from cornerback Antwaun Moulden, safety James Ihedigbo, and most of the defensive line, it's tough to pick out Patriots who had bad games. Moulden got beat early and often as the Giants sprinted out to a 9-0 lead. Ihedigbo just isn't the answer at safety; maybe he can bulk up and move to linebacker full-time next year. And defensive linemen Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick couldn't handle one-man blocks and got pushed off the ball all game long. Vince Wilfork followed up his best game as a pro with a mediocre effort where he got no pressure and didn't impact the Giants running game at all.

The Giants were able to run the ball better than anticipated, totaling 114 yards and 4.1 yards a carry. But they won the game through the air, with quarterback Eli Manning 30 of 40 for 296 yards 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 103.8 rating. The Patriots running game was, as usual, best out of the shotgun/spread formation, and they got 4.4 yards a carry but just 83 yards overall. Brady had an average game, 27 of 41 for 276 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 killer interception, and a 91.1 rating.

In many ways, Brady's interception was like the late INT in the Ravens game two weeks earlier. The Patriots were near midfield, late in the game, and all they needed to do was run some time off the clock and score a touchdown or field goal to make the game almost impossible to lose. But again, Brady heaved it toward the end zone, and the pass was picked off on a good defensive play.

This time the play wasn't called in the huddle, it was a broken play. But with all that was on the line, Brady needed to be smarter and either take a short gain or throw the ball away. The Giants didn't score on the ensuing drive; but if the Patriots had run the clock and scored, they are likely world champions this morning.

The next drive was almost as maddening, with two consecutive just-miss passes to Wes Welker and Deion Branch, either of which would have put the Patriots in field goal range with a chance to run the clock down to less than 2:00. The first pass was thrown slightly behind Welker, though he still got two hands on it and should have caught it. And the second one was barely tipped by a Giants defender, which was just a good play by him.

Once the Giants got the ball back, it felt inevitable that the defense couldn't stop them again. New York had drives of 10, 9, 8, 7, 10, 9, and 10 plays to that point -- yet the defense had mostly kept them out of the end zone. However, a 9-play touchdown drive, with one excellent catch and a bunch of easy pitch-and-catch plays sealed the deal.

Again, it was the little things. As Belichick says all the time, the difference between teams at this level is razor thin, so any mistakes are magnified. If the Patriots had won, people would have looked at a potential pass-interference call that wasn't made against Sterling Moore, a holding call that cost the Giants a drive with 4:18 left, or the inability to hold the Patriot at their own 2 yard-line before the half.

But they won, so people will look at Brady's safety or INT, the Welker drop, and the fumbles that were recovered by New York. It's just the price of being in the big games; win and you're a hero, lose and you're a bum. Note: some would also cite the Giants fumble that was called back on a penalty, but given that the infraction was 12-men on the field, there's no way to know the fumble would have occurred without the 12th man or that the Pats wouldn't have recovered it without the extra defender.

As for who starred and sucked in the game, here's a short list.

Starred

1. Tight end Aaron Hernandez: 8 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown (and 1 important drop).

2. Receiver Wes Welker: 7 catches for 60 yards and 1 bad drop.

3. Receiver Deion Branch: 3 catches, 3 first downs (converted a third- and a fourth-down).

4. Running back Danny Woodhead: 4 catches and a touchdown, and 2 carries for 21 yards.

5. Linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo who combined for 22 tackles and 2 forced fumbles (and only blew 3 or 4 plays between them).

6. Safety Patrick Chung: 6 tackles, 1 pass defended, and several hard hits that knocked Giants players out of the game (some temporarily, some permanently).

7. Linebacker Mark Anderson: 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits, and very good pressure inside and out.

8. Punter Zoltan Mesko: pinned the Giants at their 12 on his last punt, and turned around field position with a 48-yarder in the second quarter.

9. Linebacker Rob Ninkovich: not always pretty, but he got good pressure off the edge (0.5 sacks and 2 QB hits).

10. Gerard Warren and Shaun Ellis: stepped in for overmatched young players and were stout against the Giants running attack.

Sucked

1. Offensive guard Logan Mankins: missed too many assignments and didn't get much push on running plays.

2. Moulden, Ihedigbo, Deaderick, and Love: for reasons already covered.

3. Whomever the 12th man was on the aforementioned penalty.

The rest of the team was somewhere in between, as was the coaching. Once again, the Patriots came out with a bad offensive game plan and got shut out in the first quarter of the Super Bowl. (Trivia question: name the last Patriots player to score for the team in the first quarter of a Super Bowl; answer below.)

Offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is off to Penn State next year, and we'll be back to Josh McDaniels -- the man who got overmatched in the last Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Only time will tell if McDaniels learned enough in his travels away from the Patriots; but the team still needs to consider hiring the best available coaches, not just the ones Bill Belichick trusts.

So where does that leave us? Well, the weather looks nice in Boston this week, so there's always that to fall back on:

Or you could follow the Celtics, Stanley Cup champion Bruins, or wait for pitchers and catchers to report (and order some Popeye's fried chicken). I'll be looking at the Patriots biggest areas of need and which players they might target in free agency, trades, and even the draft.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It might be hard to swallow, but the Patriots are now tied for the most Super Bowl losses by a franchise with four.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Welker should have caught that one."

Keep the faith (if you have any left),

- Scott

PS.
15-4 :(
&
2-1 :(

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Tight end Ben Coates caught a four-yard touchdown pass from Drew Bledsoe in Super Bowl XXXI (1/26/1997).

3 Factors that Spell a Patriots Win

2012-02-05T09:45:00.001-05:00

As game time approaches, I'm more and more confident that the Patriots will win. It goes without saying that in the NFL there are no guarantees, that any strange thing could happen to upset the predicted path. But even though this is a close match up, three things stand out that make me think the game will go New England's way:

Factor #1. The Giants are a one-dimensional offensive team, and over the years the Patriots have proven very adept at stopping one-dimensional offenses.

Despite what I heard most of the week about New York's bruising running game, they were 32nd (i.e. dead fucking last) in the NFL with just 89.2 yards-per-game and only 3.5 yards-per-carry on the season. (Quite the turn-around from four years ago, when they ranked fourth with 134.2 YPG and third with 4.6 YPC.) They ran for 3.8 yards a rush in the November game against the Patriots, and there's no reason to think they'll do better with a healthy Brandon Spikes for (what we hope will be) the entire game.

The Giants' passing game is excellent; but the Patriots showed the ability to shut it down until the end of the fourth quarter. Prior to their two touchdown drives to end the game (which, by the way, totaled only 110 yards), New York had just one decent drive all day -- their first possession of the second half.

Not sure what Bill Belichick will have up his sleeve for the Super Bowl. But he won't have to worry about the Giants running attack, so it'll be a lot easier to focus on shutting down the pass.

Factor #2. The Giants need to win the turnover battle, but Tom Brady is stingy in that department the game after a poor performance.

An underplayed fact about the first Pats/Giants game was that New York won the turnover battle 4-2, yet barely squeaked out a win with two touchdown drives at the end. The turnovers were legit, they forced them and could well have had at least one more interception. But if the teams are evenly matched, a 4-2 advantage would usually lead to an easier win, which it did not, indicating that the Giants aren't quite as good as the Patriots when all other things are equal.

But the bigger point is that New York is unlikely to win the turnover battle in the Super Bowl. Against the Ravens, Brady had his 15th career game with a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding the playoff loss to Baltimore in 2009, when they didn't play another game that season).

Here is Brady's average stat line the game after a sub-60.0 performance:

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Note that he tosses one interception about every two games. So the Giants might expect to get one pick, but probably shouldn't count on any more largess from TB12.

Given that the Patriots are not a fumbling team, that makes it difficult for the Giants to win the turnover battle unless they are extremely careful with the ball. And without a positive turnover ratio, they are in trouble. They built a +5 turnover margin in three playoff wins. And that includes +2 in the NFC Championship Game, where they needed overtime despite getting two gifts from Kyle Williams.

In contrast, the Patriots have two playoff wins despite a negative turnover margin in both games. So while the turnover margin is important to both teams, the Giants are the ones more dependent on posting a positive number in that column by 10:30 tonight.

Factor #3. Defensive experimentation during the regular season should pay dividends today.

From a defensive standpoint, the Patriots tried more different things this year than any year since 2004 or 2005. Three-man fronts with single-gap responsibilities, four-man fronts with defensive ends dropping into coverage, the obvious two-way player moves (Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater), inside blitzes by James Ihedigbo and Jerod Mayo, secondary schemes that looked like zone but were really man, Devin McCourty's move to safety, Ihedigbo's move to linebacker, and most shocking of all, many more stunts and games up front than in past years.

After 16 games of experimentation, the Patriots coaching staff knows what works best against pass-first teams, so they should have a good idea of how to slow down the Giants. And if the first thing doesn't work, they have multiple different packages in their defensive arsenal. Manning is certainly playing well, but if he can't recognize the defense pre-snap, then it's advantage Patriots. And it's likely they'll confuse him at least 25% of the time.

One sub-point to this factor. In 2010, the Patriots beat the Colts 31-28. After the game, Patriots defenders said they faked zone coverage pre-snap and played man post-snap about 70% of the time.

However, the plan wasn't to confuse Peyton Manning, which they conceded was almost impossible. The plan was to confuse the wide receivers, and it worked like a charm. The Patriots picked off three Manning throws, the most against him since the 2003 playoffs (a span of nine games).

Given their success with that scheme, and Eli Manning's excellent play of late, it probably makes more sense to try to confuse Jake Ballard (2nd year), Victor Cruz (2nd year), and Hakeem Nicks (3rd year) rather than trying to confuse Manning.

That sub-point notwithstanding, the overall Patriots multiple defensive looks and schemes are an asset they did not possess in Super Bowl XLII, and one they hadn't fully developed in time for the November game.

Summary

So there you have it; the three factors that play to the Patriots favor in what looks like a relatively even matchup. If two of those three come to fruition this evening, then the Patriots should be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once again. If not... well, the post-game bashing of Belichick should at least be entertaining :)

I hope you enjoyed your week everybody, and if it isn't a Patriots blowout, let's at least hope for a good game.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

2-0!

Patriots-Giants Super Bowl XLVI Preview

2012-02-02T09:00:00.005-05:00

It's finally here!! No, not the Super Bowl -- my pre-game breakdown of the Super Bowl! The game itself is a few days away, but I thought you'd like a little reading material to kill time between now and then. If you've seen enough articles with catchphrases like "revenge game," "can't spell 'elite' without 'Eli'," and "why are the Patriots favored," here is something to break up the monotony.

As is my standard practice in such situations, I will look back at the last games these teams played -- a 24-20 New York Giants victory on November 6, 2011 and a 17-14 Giants win in Super Bowl XLII four years ago. Then I'll consider what has changed and whether or not the Patriots can alter the outcome and get a win against these guys. Checking in on those games gives us a decent chance to determine how the Super Bowl will unfold, and I am including each team's best game plan to win it all.

1. A Giant Reversal

In 2007, the Giants entered Super Bowl XLII with a punishing ground game and basic-but-clutch quarterback play. In the four years since, they abandoned those principles entirely, entering this year's Super Bowl with an excellent passing attack and a terrible running game. Note the monumental change in these stats (with NFL rankings in parenthesis):

2007 Giants rushing:
4.6 yards-per-carry (3rd) and 134.2 yards-per-game (4th)

2011 Giants rushing:
3.5 yards-per-carry (32nd) and 89.2 yards-per-game (32nd)

2007 Giants passing:
6.2 yards-per-pass (27th), 197 yards-per-game (21st), 73.0 rating (24th)

2011 Giants passing:
8.4 yards-per-pass (3rd), 295.5 yards-per-game (5th), 92.9 rating (6th)

Note that their 2011 running game ranked dead last in the entire NFL, a stunning turn-around since 2007. Bruiser back Brandon Jacobs had his worst year as a starter in 2011, averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and only 40.8 yards a game. Speed back Ahmad Bradshaw didn't do much better, 3.9 yard a carry and 51.9 a game.

Not exactly what the Patriots faced four years ago. To borrow a phrase: "Rematch?! Don't talk about rematch! RE-match?!"

2. Patriots Additions and Subtractions

As always, there are injuries and roster changes, with new players preparing, some just hoping to play, and some who know they won't play.

Last November, linebacker Brandon Spikes had five tackles in the first 15:08, but then he got hurt and was done for the next six weeks. With him back in the lineup the past two games, the Patriots shut down two of the strongest running teams in the NFL (Ravens and Broncos). Not that they have to worry about the Giants' 32nd-ranked running game, but Spikes is also better against the pass than the backup linebackers.

Another addition is running back Kevin Faulk, a playoff-tested veteran -- reliable as a pass receiver and pass blocker. Rookie Stevan Ridley fumbled in the Broncos playoff game, and the Patriots left him off the game-day roster against the Ravens. With ball-security vital in the post-season, Ridley might find himself out in the cold again with Faulk taking his place in the Super Bowl.

And even though it might sound like a reach, corner Sterling Moore didn't play in the first game, and he showed himself to be a big-play guy against the Ravens in the AFC title game. Not that he shuts down receivers, but he plays better at corner than Devin McCourty, and Moore's skill allows the Patriots to move McCourty to safety, where he is much better.

On the downside, tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain in the last playoff game, and will be limited, although he will most certainly play. He doesn't make a living with lateral movement, but he will be affected, which means the Patriots should have a game plan ready in case he isn't effective. They probably won't risk him as much on running plays either, so look for pass plays early in the game when Gronkowski is on the field.

And the one key player certain not to play is defensive lineman Andre Carter, who is out for the playoffs. He had three QB hits in the first game against New York, but he is on injured reserve and will not play on Sunday.

3. Giants Getting Healthy

The most obvious addition for the Giants is wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who missed just one game this year -- his team's victory over the Patriots. He is an important part of their offense, averaging 5.7 catches and 93.5 yards per game since returning to the lineup. Their biggest deep threat, Nicks will be a dangerous match up for a Patriots secondary that struggled this year.

The Giants do not have any significant injuries. Bradshaw has been hobbled with a foot fracture, though he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. And several of their vaunted defensive linemen are nursing small injuries; but you should expect them to play for sure and probably to be pretty effective.

The injury factor clearly goes to the Giants, who are nearly at full strength at just the right time.

4. Giants Game Plan For Victory

The Giants can't run the ball against the Patriots, so they should only do enough to keep the defense honest. But quarterback Eli Manning is playing at an extremely high level, so they should be able to pass. And with a full complement of receivers, he will attack the New England back-seven, a weak secondary and a linebacking corps that struggles against the pass.

On defense, everyone expects New York to get pressure with just the front four. But almost as many people expect the Patriots to use tight ends and running backs to keep Tom Brady upright. So the Giants will have to blitz some of the time -- if only to hurry up Brady's decision-making and keep the blockers guessing.

They have the linebackers to blitz. However, those 'backers are weak in pass coverage, so any blitzes will expose their secondary either short or deep. But it's a risk they have to take if they can't get pressure with the front four.

Most important is that the Giants have to win the turnover battle. They claimed a +2 turnover ratio in the regular season victory, but they only won the game by 4 points (and that on a very late touchdown drive). Every team wants to get more takeaways than their opponent, but that is essentially a requirement for the Giants to claim victory this Sunday.

(Note: game-film analyst Ron Jaworski counted four Manning passes that should have been intercepted in the NFC title game. Manning will have to protect the ball better in this game; if he tosses up that many potential picks, the Patriots have the secondary players to cash in those turnovers.

5. Patriots Game Plan For Victory

They lost in their last Super Bowl appearance because of bad offensive adjustments and coaching (it says so here, so it must be true). Therefore, in this game it is extremely important to take what the defense gives them. Even without Gronkowski, the Patriots have enough offensive weapons that the Giants can't take away everything.

So if New York jams receivers at the line and bull rushes Brady, he has to dump it off or call screens/draws to combat it. If they come out with six defensive backs in a deep cover-2, then audible to running plays. The short- and intermediate-routes in the middle of the field should be available to the Patriots and their multitude of slot/possession receivers, but if the Giants overload that area, Brady has to hit Deion Branch or Aaron Hernandez deep to make the defense back off.

This would be a much more favorable match-up with Gronkowski at full strength. But even if he doesn't play, that still leaves Branch, Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Danny Woodhead to attack the weakest part of the Giants defense -- their linebackers and half of their secondary.

On defense, the Patriots spent the year mixing together all kinds of different alignments, gap responsibilities, secondary groupings, and linebacker blitz schemes. And they probably spent the last month deciding which ones work best against deep-threat receivers, and given that they have the film, they most certainly know better than I do.

But if forced to guess which one they'd go with, I'd say a combination of McCourty and Chung at safety in a two-deep shell, hitting receivers at the line of scrimmage, and controlled bull-rushes up front to push the Giants line back into Manning. If they can't get pressure that way, look for them to use games and tricks up front to confuse New York's offensive line and get free pass rushers.

Manning is bad at escaping free blitzers (as most QBs are) and is very bad throwing off his back foot. And with a two-deep concept, the Giants will have to work their way down the field for points, something they didn't do very well for three-quarters of the game last November.

Quick Hits:

A. In 16 regular season games, the Giants were +7 in turnover margin, and they are +5 in just 3 post-season games.

B. In 16 regular season games, the Patriots were +17 in turnover margin, but they are minus-3 in 2 post-season games.

C. The Giants are 3-1 in the last four games against the Patriots, despite being outscored 82-89 (sort of the opposite of the Patriots-Ravens recent games).

D. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 34-15 the second (or third) time they play a team in the same season. (Trivia question: name the last year they were under .500 under those circumstances, answer below.)

E. Tom Brady had a 57.5 QB rating in the AFC Championship Game. Here are his average stats the week after he has a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding playoff loss to Ravens in January 2009):

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Summary

This is the hardest game to pick in quite some time. The Giants changes on offense make them better suited to exploit the Patriots defense. But the Patriots offense is well-designed to attack the weakest parts of the Giants defense, too. If Gronkowski was 100%, it would be easy to pick the Patriots because that would give them three match-up nightmares on the field at the same time (with Welker and Hernandez).

But without Gronkowski, this is a much closer game. It probably comes down to the turnover battle. And as stated before, Brady averages about 0.5 picks the week after he has a down game. So I'm going with the Patriots in a 2- or 4-point victory; but if you're planning to bet on the game, I recommend lottery tickets instead. This one is just too close to call.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
15-3!
&
2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
In 2006, the Patriots were 2-3 the second/third times they played teams.

Pats/Giants Super Bowl Breakdown Links

2012-01-30T22:34:00.000-05:00

Hey guys,

I haven't finished my pre-Super Bowl update, but here are some links with interesting information and breakdowns of what to expect on Sunday:

SI.com breakdown of specific matchups and schemes (five days worth, you'll have to click back to see Monday-Thursday, but well worth it):
http://nfl.si.com/2012/01/27/break-it-down-super-bowl-matchups-bill-obrien-vs-perry-fewell/?sct=hp_t11_a3&eref=sihp

Cold, Hard Football Facts on Passer Rating Differential:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5271_Kerry%27s_Super_Bowl_Tour_de_Statistical_Force.html
and more on "peaking" and Passer Rating Differential:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5279_Patriots-Giants_Tour_de_Statistical_Force%3A_who%27s_peaking%3F.html

Cold, Hard Football Facts post on the Patriots defense (just about melted my brain, so tread carefully):
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5281_The_Curious_Case_of_the_New_England_defense.html

That should keep you busy until I finish up my analysis.

Enjoy!

- Scott

Patriots Survive and Advance, 23-20

2012-01-23T14:30:00.000-05:00

In one of the best football games you'll ever see, the Patriots held on for a 23-20 win over the Ravens. The victory propelled them to Super Bowl XLVI against the New York Giants, who won their way into the big game with a 20-17 overtime thriller. More on that game later in the week; but first, let Nostrodamus (i.e. your humble blogger) walk you through yesterday's Patriots win.

First the self-congratulatory section of the email, a list of "as predicted here last week" moments from yesterday's game (if you don't want to read this, skip down 9 paragraphs):

The three dead-on predictions:

A. Baltimore running back Ray Rice was not effective in the ground game; the Patriots held him to 67 yards on 21 carries (3.2 YPC) and no touchdowns.

B. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was much more dangerous thanthan people thought. In fact, he was the best QB in the game. He went 22 for 36, 306 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 95.4 rating. He also ran for 27 yards on 4 carries, although he did miss some long bombs, mostly courtesy of the Patriots pass rush.

C. Baltimore receiver Lee Evans struggled against the Patriots, again. He had the winning touchdown in his hands and Patriots corner Sterling Moore knocked it away. For the record, here are Evans' numbers in 14 career games against the Pats:

Totals: 36 catches, 436 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 fumble lost

Averages: 2.6 catches, 31.1 yards, 0.07 touchdowns

And the two imperfect-but-close predictions:

D. I projected Patriots receivers Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez would have 18 catches, 238 yards, and 2 touchdowns. They had 18 catches, 206 yards, and no touchdowns. Not perfect, but pretty close.

E. I thought the game would be a 4- to 6-point Patriots win -- it turned out to be a 3-point win.

Thank you for indulging me. Now on to our regularly scheduled update.

The game was a contest of which team would screw up the fewest opportunities. Brady missed a wide open Gronkowski touchdown pass, and Gronkowski failed to get his second foot down (or so it was called on the field) on a first-down catch. The Patriots had to settle for field goals both times. And Brandon Spikes' interception went to waste when Brady threw his second interception on an ill-advised 50 yard bomb.

On the other side, Joe Flacco missed two wide open receivers on long passes, and the Ravens took a field goal on fourth-and-inches (whereas the Patriots went for it on fourth-and-inches and got a touchdown). The Ravens scored just six points off three New England turnovers, and lost despite clear advantages in time of possession, total yards, third-down conversions, and the turnover battle.

However, the biggest Ravens blunder was not calling a timeout before the game-tying field goal attempt. Being at the game, I saw kicker Billy Cundiff running to the kicking spot from 75 yards away. He was practicing kicks at the 20 yard-line on the opposite end of the field. And after all that running, the Ravens had only 10 seconds to measure the kick, get in position, and snap the ball. And the Ravens finished the season with a timeout they could have used -- I don't think they let you carry that over to next season.

The star of the day was probably the Patriots defensive front. They got a great push upfield for 3.5 quarters, forced three three-and-outs (for a total of minus-6 yards) to start the game, and had Flacco on the run all day long. Unfortunately, they let him break containment and run for chunks of yards, but overall it was a great day for them.

Vince Wilfork came up huge in the biggest game of the year. He had six tackles, including three for a loss, one sack, and helped clog up the middle so Rice couldn't get going. In fact, the entire defensive interior was great; Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love (who you *still* can't pick out of a police lineup), and subs Gerard Warren, and Shaun Ellis. (Note: Didn't see much out of Ron Brace, but it was good to see him out there finally).

The linebackers cut off outside runs and the short passing game. Brandon Spikes lived up to his billing, nine tackles, one pass defended, and a crucial interception with the Ravens driving for tying or go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. Mark Anderson got key pressures on the quarterback, with two QB hits, a sack for 7 yards, and other hurries that kept Baltimore off-balance. Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo combined for 15 tackles, and even though neither seemed huge in the game, both played their responsibilities well and made the Ravens earn every yard.

Only cornerback Sterling Moore distinguished himself among the secondary players. He saved the game with his strip of Evans, and knocked away another pass and had good coverage that led to at least two other incompletions. Safety play continued to be poor, even when Devin McCourty rotated in. James Ihedigbo got beaten for a long pass on the Ravens first scoring drive, and though he got 8 tackles and a sack, he was nowhere in the passing game. Patrick Chung was got beaten on two long pass attempts, but luckily for him they fell incomplete.

Overall, a strong front-seven made up for weakness in the back four. They won't try to play the Giants the same way; they'd get killed by Eli Manning. But that's a post for another day.

On offense, quarterback Tom Brady was lucky the defense played so well. Please hold your nose when you read this: 22 of 36, 239 yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions (one a terrible decision and throw), and a QB rating of 57.5. He missed Gronkowski on the possible touchdown, and was lucky to get back another interception on a penalty. The completion percentage and yards could be forgiven; but that second interception was bad for five reasons.

First, with 7:22 left and a 3-point lead, it was imperative to run some clock before scoring, but he went for a 50-yard bomb instead. Second, there were two receivers open for an easy 5- to 10-yard gain. Third, his intended receiver was Matthew Slater -- he of the one career reception. Fourth, Brady and Slater weren't on the same page, so the throw went right when Slater broke left. And fifth, it was a jump-ball situation at best, and Slater is not the player to trust in that scenario.

However, it was not all bad on offense. Despite Brady's struggles, and a miscue by Slater and Gronkowski, the receivers did a great job getting open against the aggressive Raven's defense. It was tight coverage all over the field, and the windows for completions were small. But Welker and Hernandez got the short throws, and Gronkowski was good for 17.4 yards a catch.

The running game was effective between the tackles, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis gaining 68 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC), with 1 touchdown. In fact, Brady might have been better running than passing -- 3 rushes, 1 touchdown. Danny Woodhead did okay on inside hand-offs, but was not as effective as Green-Ellis. However, tight end Aaron Hernandez looks more like a novelty out of the backfield (1 rush for 9 yards, 2 rushes for 0 yards).

And the offensive line did mostly a credible job. Logan Mankins and Brian Waters killed it again, and center Dan Connolly continued his underrated season replacing the injured Dan Koppen (remember him). However, the outside linemen -- Matt Light and Nate Solder -- were beaten for pressures in the game and only did okay. The center of that line is its strength; and they need to make sure they chip outside rushers in the Super Bowl.

Special teams were a mixed bag. Only one of Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs was returned, and it went for 20 yards (the other five kicks were touchbacks). And he went 3-3 on field goals -- which as the Ravens will tell you is important. But Woodhead had a fumble on one kickoff return, and that could have been devastating as it came just as momentum seemed headed toward Baltimore.

Coaching was very good for the most part. The only play-call I disagreed with was the long pass to Slater that was intercepted. But overall, the plan of using short passes and inside runs was very good. And they have definitely come up with a blueprint to stop Rice -- and they even adjusted well when the Ravens went away from tendencies in the running game.

So where does that leave us? Can't ask for much more than a trip to the Super Bowl. Gronkowski came up injured late in the game, so that will be important to watch. And Brady's shoulder appeared to affect his accuracy, so he'll need the next two weeks to get that healthy. But for the next week, it's all enjoyment and talk -- the serious stuff won't start until next Monday.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In 22 post-season games, Tom Brady has 3 games with a QB rating under 60.0. Yet somehow, he is still 2-1 in those games. (Trivia question: two of those games were against the Ravens, can you name the other team and year? Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "That wasn't luck, it was two great teams fighting to the finish. Glad we came out on top; but it could have gone either way."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Trivia Answer: Brady had a QB rating of 57.6 in the Divisional Round against the San Diego Chargers on January 14, 2007, and won the game 24-21 (thank you Troy Brown!).

Patriots vs. Ravens Preview

2012-01-19T23:20:00.000-05:00

It's finally here, the AFC Championship Game. And for once it's a contest between the two teams that were clearly the best in the conference this season. This one appears to be a battle of the Patriots #3 scoring offense versus the Ravens #3 scoring defense. No doubt that subplot plays big; but to know how this one will go, it's important to understand where the rivalry has been and what's changed over the years.

They met once in the playoffs, but that was two full years ago (and I still think Ravens QB Joe Flacco played hurt in that game). The last time they played each other was October 17, 2010, and the Patriots eked out a 23-20 overtime win. A lot has changed in the 15 months since then; but there are patterns of play and habits of coaching that will surely come into play on Sunday. So here goes...

1. Forget Last Weekend

First of all, use caution in reading too much into the playoff games from last weekend. The Patriots defense looked like world-beaters, but they were up against a bad Broncos offense. Tim Tebow went 1-4 his last five games, and only scored 12.5 points per loss. Remember: the Patriots finished 15th in points allowed for a reason -- they are an average defense.

It's also popular to say the Ravens offense stinks; after all, they scored only 3 points in the last 46-minutes on Sunday, and their average scoring drive for the game covered just 28 yards. But that underestimates the Houston Texans defense, which ranked fourth in the NFL in points allowed (17.4 points per game).

So forget last weekend's games. The Ravens offense scored a little more than the average given up by Houston. And the Patriots defense gave up a little less than what the Broncos had been scoring in losses. In the end, they'll probably be about what you expect -- average.

2. Gronkowski and Hernandez Have Arrived, and Welker is Back

In the October 17 contest, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were playing in just their sixth NFL games, and receiver Wes Welker was recovering from a terrible knee injury. Gronkowski and Hernandez were still learning the offense and trying to gain the trust of quarterback Tom Brady. And between them, they caught just 5 passes for 85 yards and no touchdowns.

Fast-forward to now, and both tight ends are considered in the top 10 (or even top 5) in the league, with Gronkowski universally praised as the best or second-best tight end in pro football. If both players contribute just an average game this Sunday, they would almost double their production of 15 months ago: 10.5 catches 140 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns.

As for Welker, limited by the effects of his knee injury, he caught 7 passes for 53 yards and no touchdowns in the October 2010 game. However, on Sunday if he turns in just an average game, it would look more like this: 7.6 catches, 98 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns.

So between these three receivers, the stat-lines could look like this:
10/17/2010 (actual): 12 catches, 133 yards, 0 touchdowns

01/22/2012 (proj.): 18 catches, 238 yards, 2 touchdowns.

That would be quite a difference.

3. Ray Rice's Declining Numbers

The Ravens live by the mantra the Jets tried to co-opt: ground and pound. They control the ball with a punishing ground game, and they have Ray Rice, one of the NFL's best running backs. Those who follow the Patriots remember Rice's 83-yard touchdown run on the first play of the Ravens 33-14 playoff win in Foxboro two years ago.

What doesn't get much attention, however, is that after that run, Rice hasn't done much against the Patriots. In fact, since that carry he has been mediocre at best. Here are his numbers:

Ray Rice versus the Patriots:
- first 12 carries: 186 yards (15.5 yards per carry), 1 touchdown

- last 49 carries: 164 yards (3.4 yards per carry), 1 touchdown

Clearly the Patriots found a way to slow down Rice. He is a cut-back runner with a so-so offensive line; which plays into the Patriots disciplined defensive approach. And overall, the Ravens averaged 2.9 yards a carry (85 carries for 250 yards) since that 83-yard run by Rice.

The Patriots coaches have slowed down Rice, and that should put the game in the quarterback's hands. Unfortunately...

4. Joe Flacco's Improvement

Joe Flacco's has his critics. But he took lessons from his early games against the Patriots and dramatically improved in the game of October 2010. Here are his numbers in three individual games against the Pats:

Game 1: 27 of 47, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 78.7 QB rating

Game 2: 4 of 10, 34 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 10.0 QB rating

Game 3: 27 of 35, 285 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 119.3 QB rating

Personally, I think Flacco was injured in the second game (the playoff contest in January 2010), so I give him a bit of a pass on that one. And the 119.3 rating in the last game was no fluke -- Flacco was poised and played very well.

The bad news for Flacco is that Derrick Mason, his leading receiver that day, no longer plays for the team. Also, the top three receivers he has aren't really the type that can hurt the Patriots (note: this doesn't include running back Rice -- only wide receivers).

Torrey Smith is a speed receiver, but he's a rookie who had just one catch for nine yards last week. Lee Evans played many years for the Buffalo Bills, and thus has played 13 games against the Patriots; but he has just 1 touchdown in all those games combined. And Anquan Boldin has 4 career catches for 63 yards against New England.

But even though Flacco doesn't have the best weapons in the league, don't expect him to wilt under the pressure this Sunday. The more he's seen of the Patriots defense, the better he's played -- which is not good news for New England fans.

5. Quick Hits

A) In the last four games against the Ravens, the Patriots are 3-1, but were outscored 98-91.

B) The Ravens last four playoff losses all came to the eventual conference champions (trivia question: can you name those teams... answer below).

C) In 16 years of existence, the Ravens franchise has as many losses in the AFC Championship Game as the Patriots franchise has in 52 years -- one loss each.

D) Bill Belichick was fired by the Cleveland Browns in 1996, and the franchise was moved to Baltimore and renamed the Ravens. Since then, Belichick and the Ravens have combined for 19 playoff appearances and 4 Super Bowl Championships. In that same time frame, the Browns made the playoffs once, and lost their only game.

Summary

You've probably heard people talking about how the Patriots defense finally came together and played well against Denver. And those same people probably said the Ravens offense looked horrible last weekend -- so they predict a 10- to 14-point blowout victory. I disagree.

If the game is a blowout, it will likely be in the Patriots favor. But the Ravens are very good defensively and usually don't beat themselves offensively. Having three receivers at full strength certainly tilts things toward New England. However, this feels like a 4- or 6-point victory, and it would not shock me if the Ravens pulled the upset.

There are only very good teams left in the playoffs; so every team is vulnerable to a bad day. The Patriots shouldn't lay an egg on Sunday -- the 2009 playoff loss is too fresh in their memories. They should control the ball with the tight ends, and if the Ravens add defensive backs, the Patriots shouldn't be shy about running against a pass-heavy defense.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
14-3!
&
1-0!

PPS.
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Trivia Answer: The Ravens lost to the 2006 Colts, 2008 Steelers, 2009 Colts, and 2010 Steelers.

Patriots Dispatch Broncos 45-10

2012-01-15T17:00:00.000-05:00

"Orange Crush" had a different meaning Saturday night; it's what happened to the Denver Broncos, not what they did to their opponent. The Patriots drubbed them, 45-10, and in winning earned a home game next week for the AFC Championship. They will play the Baltimore Ravens, a team that beat them in the playoffs two years ago, so they'll have their work cut out for them. Baltimore brings a great defense and a very good running game, running game to the contest, so next week won't be as easy as it was against the Broncos.

The Patriots put on a first-half offensive clinic. They scored 14 points in 5:15 on two drives to start the game and 14 more points in 1:34 to end the half. They added another touchdown in-between; and meanwhile, Denver's only scoring "drive" of the half was 25 yards after Brady's only interception. 35-7 at the half and that was your ballgame. The second half was just running out time and trying to stay healthy.

There are so many hosannas you can sing about the Patriots in a game that lopsided; but here are a few of the standouts:

The Offense

1. Tom Brady threw five touchdowns in the first half (and NFL playoff record) and six overall. His stats for the game: 26 of 34, 363 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 137.6 QB rating (no easy trick to get a rating that high when you have an interception in the game). He was in complete control from start to finish, and a big reason why the Patriots got a fast start -- unlike the past 14 weeks, when they started slowly.

2. Aaron Hernandez had 9 touches (5 rushes, 4 receptions) for 126 yards and a touchdown; quite the Swiss army knife performance, and vital in the running game that opened up long passes.

3. Rob Gronkowski still poses problems that no one seems to be able to solve. Everyone knows he's a main target near the end zone; but he somehow he got 3 touchdowns, including an otherworldly grab in the corner of the end zone. Oh... and he caught 10 passes for 145 yards -- another day at the office ::yawn!::

The Ravens will have to do a better job against Gronkowski. He now has 21 touchdowns this season, despite extra defenders and game plans designed to shut him down.

4. Deion Branch caught a 61-yard touchdown down the sideline and averaged 28.3 yards per reception. With defenses concentrating on the short game with Wes Welker (6 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown), Gronkowski, and Hernandez, the Patriots have to complete long passes to keep them honest.

5. Offensive linemen Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Brian Waters, and Nate Solder. Brady dropped back to pass 35 times, and he was hit only twice, sacked zero times, only had to scramble out of the pocket twice all night, and the Broncos produced just one tackle for a loss. That is amazing.

The Defense

1. Vince Wilfork (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits) and Kyle Love (3 tackles) clogged up the middle and forced Denver to bounce runs outside all day. Those plays didn't always go in the Patriots favor, but it was clear early on that there would be no running up the middle on Saturday.

2. Rob Ninkovich made up for a terrible first game against Denver; he shut down the edge this time and got 1.5 sacks and 2 QB hits of his own. He also forced a fumble; not a bad day at the office.

3. Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes were all over the field and did a fantastic job shutting down the Denver option-run. Multiple times, these guys threatened to tackle quarterback Tim Tebow, forcing him to pitch the ball, and then they got in position to stop the man he pitched it to. It was textbook, and is exactly what Denver will face if they don't diversify the offense for next year.

BTW, Spikes' stat line is impressive: 6 tackles, 1 sack (4 yards), 2 tackles for loss, 2 quarterback hits, 1 pass defended, and 1 fumble recovery.

4. Kyle Arrington was their best defensive back on the day; played most of the snaps and had 10 tackles on defense, 1 on special teams, and a forced fumble.

Special Teams

1. Zotlan Mesko booted the ball twice and both ended up inside the 20 yard line with no return yards. Punters aren't usually football heroes, but when the Patriots need a big punt in a big spot, they have the man for the job.

The Coaching

1. Offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia killed it again. He's been with the Patriots for over 25 years, and with four of five starters back, he put together a great plan to keep the speed rushers away from Brady.

2. Defensive coordinator-in-waiting Matt Patricia executed a great game plan, making Tebow beat them with short passes and sustained drives -- two things he can't do yet.

The Bad

The running backs did not measure up to the success of the overall team. They ran the ball poorly (22 rushes for 77 yards, 3.5 yards per carry), and rookie back Stevan Ridley fumbled for the second straight game.

So where does that leave us? Patriots versus Ravens should be quite a game. No doubt the Pats will have revenge on their minds; Baltimore knocked them out of the playoffs two years ago, handing Belichick and Brady their first home playoff loss at Gillette Stadium. Watch for my update later in the week for a breakdown of factors going into the game.

Statistical Oddities of the Week: How strange was this game? Aaron Hernandez led the Patriots in rushing yards (61). Denver lost 45-10 but led in time of possession (33:23 to 26:37). And Tom Brady led all players in punting average (48.0).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Tebow should be a two-way player -- they could have used him at defensive back."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

14-3!

1-0!

Patriots vs. Broncos Preview

2012-01-13T00:01:00.011-05:00

Last year I wrote that two weeks between games felt like too long. Not this year; I'm barely getting this preview out before the game. Another day and I'd have to pre-date the post to make it a preview at all.

So it's Patriots vs. Broncos for the right to go to the AFC Championship game. As is my practice, I'll look back at the most recent game between the two teams and determine if enough changed in the interim to alter the outcome. Shouldn't be too hard this time; the Patriots won 41-23 in a game played less than a month ago.

That game went Denver's way early and the Patriots way after that. The Broncos led 16-7 after 17 minutes, but the Patriots roared back, turning turnovers and defensive adjustments into a 34-7 rout the rest of the way.

The Broncos ran for 167 yards in the first quarter. But after the Patriots adjusted, they had only 85 in the rest of the game. The Pats also forced two turnovers (and got one gift on a muffed punt), and the defense gave quarterback Tim Tebow only short passes. Tebow had had just two completions that traveled over 20 yards in the air, as compared to at least five in last week's playoff win.

Meanwhile, the Patriots offense started very slowly in December, but they cashed in all three turnovers. They they went no-huddle and used some nice play design (and some blown coverages) to sustain long drives and score touchdowns. The Broncos slowed down Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski; but that left Aaron Hernandez to gash them for 129 yards (and 1 touchdown) on 9 receptions.

The Patriots clearly weren't ready to stop all the dimensions that Tebow brings to the game, and it took them a quarter to figure out how. And the Broncos clearly were ready to stop the Patriots main two receivers, but they couldn't stop the third (Hernandez).

So what has changed between 12/18/2011 and 1/14/2012? Has enough changed to give Denver a chance of turning around the final score? Here goes:

1. The Venue

The last game took place in Denver, a notoriously loud stadium that sits one mile above sea level. Many teams have trouble winning there, including the Patriots, who have a terrible record against the Broncos, especially in Mile High.

The teams will contest this game in Foxboro, a notoriously quiet stadium with artificial turf (as opposed to grass at Mile High). The faster track and surer footing will give the Patriots passing game an advantage. But Broncos runners will have surer footing, too, and that could be to their advantage.

There is also a perceived advantage to athletes who train at altitude. However, that will likely be offset by the short week for Denver (they played on Sunday and play again on Saturday) and the long rest the Patriots had during the bye week.

Not much there either way to turn things around; in fact, with the difficulty running offense on the road, it's probably an advantage for the Patriots.

2. Health

Patriots who will play Saturday who did not play in the first game: Patrick Chung, Brandon Spikes, Sebastian Vollmer, and Deion Branch. You can't overstate Chung's importance to the secondary; they are so thin at safety. Spikes is overrated (IMO), but the team plays better against the run with him in there, so his return will help.

Branch probably won't make much difference unless the Broncos somehow shut down all three main receivers. But Vollmer's return allows them to use tackle Nate Solder as an extra lineman/tight end, and that should slow down the Denver outside pass rush.

On the other side, Broncos safety Brian Dawkins missed the first game, and he looks questionable for Saturday. But if he can play, he could help neutralize the Patriots tight ends -- he's a veteran with great toughness and coverage skills. Unfortunately, they might have lost Eric Decker, their leading receiver this year. Decker suffered a knee injury early in the second quarter last week, and is reportedly out of the game this Saturday.

Most of this is advantage New England, although a Dawkins return is a wild card. He helped stop them years ago in the Super Bowl against the Eagles, and if he can cause problems, the Denver secondary is good enough to convert that into turnovers.

3. Adjustments

This plays to New England's favor for sure. Once they made their adjustments in the prior game, the Broncos had no answers on offense or defense. So even if the Denver braintrust comes up with a good game plan, the Patriots adjust as well as any team in the NFL, and they should be able to make the in-game changes this week, too.

The Broncos don't have as much to adjust with. Their running game is good, but it probably won't win the game without great play from the quarterback. And the quarterback is limited, which gives the Patriots less to adjust to.

The Pats might face an initial onslaught, but if they survive the emotional Broncos, they will adjust better and turn the game in their favor.

4. Confidence

After the win last week, Denver has to be brimming with confidence. Unfortunately, they can't play the Steelers at home again, otherwise they'd probably win again. Pittsburgh is poor at adjustments, they were beaten up so they couldn't substitute to keep players fresh in the altitude, and their quarterback was injured so he couldn't extend plays or throw on the run.

Confidence is great, and Denver certainly shouldn't feel *bad* about themselves after last week. But the last game was a perfect storm for the Broncos and they still needed overtime to win.

5. Quick Hits:

A) Patriots are now 16-4 after a bye week under Bill Belichick, but 0-1 this year (trivia question: can you name the team they lost to... answer below).

B) The Patriots had four players this year with more catches and more yards than Denver's top receiver. Wes Welker (122 for 1,569), Rob Gronkowski (90 for 1,327), Aaron Hernandez (79 for 910), and Deion Branch (51 for 910) all out-performed Denver's Eric Decker (44 for 612).

C) The Patriots have never beaten the Broncos in the playoffs (0-2).

D) Tim Tebow really is making everyone forget Kyle Orton. Even the NFL's official web site omits Orton from Denver's passing stats. Don't believe me, here's proof (or you can check yourself at http://tinyurl.com/7u34xrt):

Summary

It shouldn't be close. The Patriots won't let Tebow beat them deep, and he hasn't shown the ability to sustain drives with short passes and score points. The Broncos defense is beaten up some -- in addition to the Dawkins injury, pass rushers Von Miller (thumb) and Elvis Dumervil (ankle) are limited. Add to that the fact that Vollmer absolutely *schooled* Dumervil in their only regular season meeting, and it could be a tough day for the Denver defense.

Additionally, the Patriots defense is healthy again, and moving Devin McCourty to safety solidified play against the deep pass. It won't help Denver that Decker is likely to be out. And the 34-7 score over the last three quarters looks more like preview than past.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

13-3!

0-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: The Patriots lost 25-17 to the Steelers after their regular season bye in 2011.

Patriots 2011 Regular Season Awards

2012-01-08T07:30:00.009-05:00

The 2011 season flew by, a whirlwind of comeback wins and just three losses (by 15 total points). The Patriots set several records, mostly on offense but the defense was suspect from the beginning.

Before the Patriots start the playoffs, here is a look back a the best performers, newcomers, and most improved players of the 2011 campaign.

The Offense

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Tom Brady
Honorable Mention: Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker

Brady actually dropped off a bit from 2010, and it might seem like the easy road to choose him as the offensive MVP again. But frankly, without him as the triggerman, no on else on offense would look as good. His 105.6 rating ranked a distant third this pass-happy year, but he led the league in first-down percentage and had yet another season of over 3-to-1 touchdown to interception margin. He also had two of the top five receivers in the league (Gronkowski and Welker).

Brady is so good, his offensive coordinators keep getting high-profile promotions and great jobs. No one here wishes current OC Bill O'Brien ill as the new head coach at Penn State. But you have to wonder if that will work out any better than it did for Josh McDaniels or Charlie Weis once they didn't have Brady under center.

Gronkowski simply had the best season of any tight end in history: the most catches ever (90), the most yards ever (1,327), and the most touchdowns ever (18). His rise to superstardom was one of the biggest stories in the NFL, and not only does he have great stats, he's one of the best blocking tight ends in the league.
Welker picked things up again, another year removed from his knee injury. He continued his energizer bunny impersonation, always working to get open and willing to take a hit and keep coming back for more. He led the entire NFL in receiving (122 catches), tied for the lead in first downs (77), and was second in receiving yards (1,569).

Most Improved Offensive Player: Rob Gronkowski
Honorable Mention: Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez

Gronkowski more than doubled his receptions (42 to 90), yards (546 to 1,327), and continued his climb to the upper eschelon of NFL receivers (let alone tight ends).

Welker's numbers improved in catches (86 to 122), yards 9848 to 1,569), touchdowns (7 to 9), and games started (11 to 15).

Hernandez sort of got lost in all the Gronkowski kudos, but he went from 45 to 79 catches, started 7 games last year and 12 this year, and contributed more in the running game. A day might come when one of the tight ends decides to leave the team to become "the man" at tight end on another team, but it would be a mistake. The combination of these two, Brady, and tight ends coach Brian Ferentz is magic.

Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Brian Waters
Honorable Mention: Stevan Ridley

The Patriots added guard Waters at the end of camp, after he was released by the Kansas City Chiefs. Usually, offensive linemen need time to learn the protections and gel with their fellow linemen, but Waters came from a similar system in KC and with the Patriots injuries, he had to play from the first game. And the results showed how well he adjusted.

He was their second-best linemen (to Logan Mankins), pass protecting well and blocking superbly in the running game (including pulls and plays in the second level). And with all the injuries along the offensive line, Waters' durability was key. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Waters has played in 157 of 160 games. Not sure why the Chiefs let him go, but... well, it was nice of them to help the Patriots like that.

Ridley showed promise in the pre-season, but despite his one early game against Oakland (10 carries for 97 yards), the bulk of his work came late in the year. All that said, he ended up with 441 yards and ran for 5.1 yards a carry, and most teams are probably more afraid of his big-play ability than the other Patriots running backs.

The Defense

Most Valuable Defensive Player: Vince Wilfork, Andre Carter
Honorable Mention: Patrick Chung

Albert Haynesworth and Shaun Ellis didn't work out, Mike Wright and Myron Pryor were injured early, and that left the defensive line to Wilfork and Carter. Wilfork was the lynchpin inside. Besides his usual stellar play against the run, he had the first two interceptions of his career, notched 3.5 sacks, and recovered a fumble in the end zone for his first touchdown. He also allowed the team to get away with a revolving door on the defensive line (think you can pick Kyle Love or Brandon Deaderick out of a police lineup?).

Carter accounted for 25% of the entire teams sacks, totaling 10 in all. (Trivia question: kudos to you if you can name the last player with double-digit sacks for the Patriots; answer below.) Carter also proved adept at holding the edge in the running game, and he came up with two fumble recoveries. Oh, and four of his sacks game against the Jets -- that was a little bonus that put him over the top.

Chung's value was apparent in the eight games he missed. There simply was no "second-best safety" -- the rest of the crew got beaten deep repeatedly and miscommunication made journeymen QBs look like All-Pros (remember Dan Orlovsky?). Chung's return to the lineup for the Buffalo game settled down the defense, and it bodes well for the playoffs that they kept pass plays in front of them in that game.

Most Improved Defensive Player: Kyle Arrington
Honorable Mention: None

In 2010, I wrote that any NFL wide receiver versus Arrington was a mismatch in the receiver's favor. What a difference a year makes. Arrington tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions, and he was thrown at less and less often as teams tried to avoid him later in the year.

His aggressive style is better suited to man-coverage; but without another man-corner, he had to play zone more. But it didn't matter -- the results speak for themselves. He's a lot like Wes Welker: an undrafted free agent who works hard to make the absolute most of his abilities, and who won't quit trying no matter the situation.

Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Andre Carter
Honorable Mention: None

Carter for all the reasons detailed above.

No one else because the rest of the free agent signings, draft picks, and trades didn't work out well enough.

The Special Teams

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Matthew Slater
Honorable Mention: Zoltan Mesko, Niko Koutouvides

Slater gets the nod because he led the team in special teams tackles for the second straight year. And as special teams captain, he really did set the tone for one of the better units in the NFL. He never worked out as a receiver (one catch this season), but he's a demon on coverage teams.

Mesko had a great year, finishing fourth in the NFL in net average and pinning 42% of his kicks inside the 20 yard line. The yards-per-return against him are slightly up from last year, but he improved in every other way: average (43.2 to 46.5), net average (38.4 to 41.5), kicks inside the 20 (19 to 24), fair catches induced (14 to 18), and fewer touchbacks (from 5 down to 3).

Koutouvides has the second-most tackles on special teams, despite being signed halfway through the season.

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Zoltan Mesko
Honorable Mention: Tracy White

Mesko for all the reasons detailed above. Also, he handled his field-goal holding duties flawlessly, and that operation was not perfect last year.

White was the perfect compliment to Slater, the two of them fed off each other all year, celebrating each other's accomplishments and then trying to outdo each other the next play. White ended up third in special teams tackles.

Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: Danny Aiken
Honorable Mention: Niko Koutouvides

Aiken is the fourth long snapper the Patriots have used in two years, and he appears to be a keeper. He only had one bad snap all year, and he pitched in with five special teams tackles. It's a shame he isn't versatile enough to fill in for the center; the Patriots used four players at that position in 2011.

Koutouvides was a nice addition, no matter how much he struggled at linebacker.

So there you have it; the coveted regular-season awards. Maybe next year I'll do a 10th anniversary "All Your Patriots" team.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
13-3!
&
0-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: Tully Banta-Cain has 10 sacks for the Patriots in 2009.

Patriots Smoke Bills 49-21

2012-01-02T02:15:00.000-05:00

The Patriots overcame an early 21-point deficit and ran away with a 49-21 win over Buffalo. The victory earns the Pats the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs, assuring them of home field in any playoff games except the Super Bowl. They'd already earned a first-round bye -- their next game is January 14 at 8:00 pm, so set yourself a reminder.

For the second consecutive time, the visitor in a Pats-Bills game jetted out to a three-touchdown advantage, only to ride poor play and turnovers to an eventual loss. The Patriots defense looked horrible in the first quarter. They put no pressure on the quarterback, weren't close to any receivers, and gave up big yards on the ground. But the game came down to adjustments -- the Patriots made 'em and the Bills didn't.

The Bills benching of wideout Stevie Johnson for a foolish "excessive celebration" penalty was a big game-changer. He left after two straight scoring drives, and the Bills were outscored 49-7 the rest of the way. The Patriots biggest defensive adjustment was letting the Bills run more and going into four- and five-deep shells to keep plays in front of them. The strange alignment sometimes left them with no one in the linebacker position; but it worked.

As with all recent games, it started ugly. The Bills led 21-0 after 15:00, which means the Patriots have been outscored 51-7 in the first quarters of their last three games. But as usual, they settled down, made adjustments, and Tom Brady cleaned up his miscues in a comeback win. But it's probably not a good idea to try this in the playoffs -- those teams might not turn the ball over and go into offensive shells so the Patriots can come back and win. Just saying.

Brady sported a 94.1 QB rating at the half, but it ballooned to 113.8 by game's end. He's been off early in recent games of late, and unfortunately his errors lingered into the third quarter this week. He finished with three touchdowns and an interception, giving him 39 on the year (against only 12 INTs). But the first two drives of the second half had passes that were off-target and some mis-communication and/or bad footing by his receivers.

Perhaps Brady's shoulder bothered him. But if that wasn't better by the third quarter it probably wouldn't have allowed him to finish the game with three touchdown drives. It's a puzzle -- one that the Patriots have two weeks to figure out before it can come back to bite them.

The season-long search for a third receiver to compliment Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski is officially over. Tight end Aaron Hernandez had 7 catches for 138 yards and 1 touchdown, and combined with Gronkowski (8 for 108, 2 TDs), and Welker (6 for 51), they accounted for 87.5% of the catches. The trio was also targeted on 88.9% of the Patriots pass attempts. Hernandez broke open the offense, and once the Bills started worrying about him, it opened things up for Welker and Gronkowski. Two receivers can be defended; three makes the Patriots much more dangerous in the post-season.

And speaking of receivers, how about running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis topping Welker in the yardage category. Green-Ellis had 1 catch, a screen pass that he ran for 53 yards. He didn't do as much in the running game (7 carries for 22 yards), but he got two touchdowns and was old reliable again. The new guy, Stevan Ridley (15 for 81 yards) was more trick-or-treat this week, getting stopped for no gain a few times, but showing great burst others. Oh, and he had his first NFL fumble -- welcome to the big leagues, rookie -- no do another lap!

The offensive line struggled again; obviously injuries are taking their toll. Buffalo isn't known for a great pass rush, but they sacked Brady four times and hit him three others. And without Logan Makins they've lost the ability to line up in a running formation and gain even a yard. The Pats will have to count on deception until they get Mankins back; although now that they have Matt Light back, at least they have players at their natural positions.

The linebackers sucked out loud in this game. Jerod Mayo got beaten repeatedly one-on-one by the running back, and the one time he knocked a pass away it was mostly blind luck. Rob Ninkovich reportedly played, but not a single play stands out enough to remember it. And we all know Dane Fletcher is limited physically, but this week he got beaten by scheme and being out of position. A week to forget for this group.

The defensive line got pushed around a lot and got little pressure early in the game. Of course it got a lot easier when the Bills had to pass the ball every down, and they ended the day with 2 sacks (by Mark Anderson and Brandon Deaderick) and 3 QB hits. However, they allowed Bills quarterback Ryan FitzPatrick to break the pocket and extend plays. It didn't hurt them today, but the playoffs will have lots of passers who can end your season on plays like that.

And in the secondary... well, it'll take some explaining.

First off, Patrick Chung returned to safety, and he was joined by James Ihedgibo and (cornerback) Devin McCourty. So starting cornerback Kyle Arrington worked with Antwaun Moulden, Sterling Moore, and (wide receiver) Julian Edelman.

Why all the shifting around, you ask? Here is my best guess.

The coaches know their corners are bad no matter what they do. But they realized they were getting killed by bad safety play -- too many big plays up the sidelines. So they put a healed Chung at safety with their best athlete, McCourty. McCourty's looked better in recent weeks, but he's been very bad at corner, so he's probably better suited to safety at the moment. And Edelman played the slot receiver because he has the quickness and toughness to cover those guys.

The strange thing is, it worked pretty well. The Pats gave up a long pass interference penalty, and there was a 29-yard sideline route in the second quarter. But other than that, there were a lot fewer long passes and hardly any Bills receivers being chased by both a short-coverage corner and an out-of-position safety.

No one knows for sure if the Patriots will continue this in the playoffs, but it's an option. For weeks opponents have gashed them with big plays, and the safeties got beaten over and over. So maybe they found a better solution, one that at least makes other teams work for their yards and points. Or maybe it's something they can try if things don't go well to start a game in the playoffs.

You're probably wondering how well the shifting around worked. Well, Moore had two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), Moulden had one, McCourty had one, and Kyle Arrington had one that was called back on a penalty. As a group, they had four passes defended, too. They gave up the pass interference call and a few illegal contact penalties, but nothing egregious. So overall, it worked pretty well; once they got the kinks worked out in the second quarter.

The coaches get props for the new defensive scheme and for recognizing and using Stevan Ridley more in this game. But they get points off for another poor offensive game plan to start the game. They've been shut out in the first quarter two weeks in a row, and five times this year. (Trivia question: can you name all five opponents... answer below.)

So where does that leave us? Resting for a week and nervously waiting for January 14 to get here. Brady might need some rest, and reports are that Mankins might need time to heal, too. It also gives them two weeks to change what they do to start the game, and with luck, to score more points early in the playoff game.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Kyle Arrington hasn't intercepted a pass since November 21, and yet he tied for the NFL lead in that category with seven on the season.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The only scary team in the AFC is Baltimore, and if we're playing them it's in the AFC Championship Game. I'm alright with that."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-3!
(Just like I told you way back in September:
http://tinyurl.com/8886pwy)

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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These Steelers, Giants, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills shut out the Patriots in the first quarter of games this season.

Patriots Escape With 27-24 Win

2011-12-30T10:45:00.000-05:00

The Patriots spotted Miami a 17-point lead, then roared back with five straight scoring drives to eke out a 27-24 victory. The win gives them a first-round bye in the playoffs, and if they beat Buffalo on New Year's Day, they will own the #1 seed in the AFC. They will also avenge an early-season loss to the Bills, and perhaps start another win-streak against them.

You've probably read elsewhere that it was a game of two halves: 17-0 Miami to start, and 27-7 Patriots to finish. True enough, but it was more about effective Patriots adjustments than bad play by the Dolphins. Running back Reggie Bush ran 16 times for 81 yards in the first half; but the Patriots formation changes limited him to 6 carries and 32 yards in the last second. Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a world-beater after 30 minutes but was just beaten down in the last 30:00:

Moore's first half: 10 for 19, 179 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (7 yards)
Moore's second half: 6 for 13, 102 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks (21 yards)

The Patriots biggest defensive adjustments were to funnel the running game toward the middle, and to run-blitz and go to the quarterback if it turned out to be a pass play. This was the third week in a row where they had to stop overreacting to run-action fakes, and they have to get that worked out earlier in playoff games.

Pats QB Tom Brady got pretty beaten up in the first half, owing to a make-shift offensive line. Matt Light was a late scratch, and the shifting up front gave the Pats some problems in the first half. But they made enough adjustments to get it going in the second half, aided by the quick-strike no-huddle.

No time for a detailed breakdown of the game, but here are the trends as we head into the last game of the regular season.

1. Devin McCourty is coming on strong. In the first 10.5 games, he had 2 passes defended and no interceptions. In the last 2.5 games, he had 9 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 interception called back on a penalty. He stunk up the joint for most of the season, but if he comes through in the playoffs, all will be forgiven.

2. They need Patrick Chung for the playoffs. Safety play is their biggest problem now, and the current mish-mash of players are great against the run and do their best with limited talent. But in the passing game, they commit too early, giving the quarterback easy decisions down the field. And their bad angles make for lots of tackles after the catch but not many broken up passes.

Chung is their only solution here; they cut James Sanders before the season, and they have so little talent at safety that receiver Matthew Slater fills in.

3. They might have to adjust formations for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Teams seem determined to take them both away, and that is much more difficult when they line up on opposite sides of the formation. On the same side of the field, you can cover them both effectively with three defenders. But on opposite sides, you have to commit four (two on each player), which opens things up for Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and the running backs.

4. Brady injured his shoulder, but if he can go in the playoffs, he has to be sharper early in the game. The Patriots averaged just 4.0 points in the first quarters of their last 10 games, down from 8.4 points per game prior to that. To help the offense and give Brady more time to work into the flow of the game, offensive coordinator should work in some more running plays and perhaps go up-tempo earlier.

5. Julian Edelman will be more valuable on defense than offense once the post-season starts. His size and quickness make him better-suited to cover slot receivers than the current Patriots linebackers. And Edelman has been an afterthought on offense; so maybe he should spend all of his practice time working with the defense instead.

6. Offensive line health is key. The O-line had trouble against Miami early on, but they made the proper adjustments and got things straightened out. But the situation is dire -- they are down to their third and fourth centers of the season, and with Matt Light out last game, had to shift a guard to tackle and that made them weaker all along the line.

One more injury could prove fatal to their playoff chances.

7. Stevan Ridley has young, fresh legs -- use them. Ridley shows great burst, and still hasn't missed more than a few blocking assignments all year. The Patriots should use him in the hurry-up offense. Given more space to work with, Ridley could gash defenses and make them play the run, even in the shotgun/spread formation.

8. Unsung hero of the year so far: Zoltan Mesko. Because the Patriots score so much, Mesko doesn't have as many punts as the league average. But his numbers are eye-popping on only 55 kicks: 42% of his punts end up inside the 20 yard line; 31% result in a fair catch; and his 41.4 yard average is fourth in the NFL. Also, it was noted on a recent broadcast that the longest punt return against him is 26 yards.

Additionally, Mesko handles his field-goal holder duties flawlessly, despite working with four different long snappers in two years. In crucial situations this year, Mesko booted long punts to turn around field position. All in all, not bad work for a guy who hardly gets on the field.

So where does that leave us? The victory guarantees the Patriots a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home playoff game. A win over Buffalo next week gives them home-field throughout the AFC playoffs. The game won't be easy; Buffalo has little left to lose, and would like nothing better than to sweep the team that beat them 15 straight times before this season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: By the end of the weekend, it will be 143 regular-season games since the Patriots sported a losing record. They lost to Buffalo on opening day in 2003, to fall to 0-1. Since that time, they have never had a record below .500 at any time during any season.

Note: if you don't think that's impressive, the second longest such streak in NFL history was 96 games, which means the Patriots streak is 49% longer than the second best streak ever ( (trivia question: can you name the team?).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sorry, I don't have anything to add this week -- my blogger friend slacked off instead of sending me an update."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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This week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills, were never below .500 between 1988 and 1993.

Patriots Best Broncos, 41-23

2011-12-19T09:30:00.000-05:00

The Patriots proved their mettle yesterday and came away with a 41-23 victory in Denver. They improved to 11-3 and clinched another AFC East title, and they currently hold the #1 seed in the AFC (pending the Pittsburgh game tonight). Up next the Buffalo Bills come to Foxboro for a rematch on Christmas Eve day, and the Bills are reeling, losers of seven straight after a fast start to the season.

The 41-23 final score does not indicate how nerve-wracking the first half was. The Broncos ran the ball at will early on and scored on three consecutive drives to lead 16-7 after the first 20 minutes. But the battle-tested Patriots rode three turnovers and good second-half adjustments to a 34-7 thrashing the rest of the way. The young Broncos wilted in the spotlight, with fumbles by three players in their second or third years in the league.

When the other team runs for 167 yards in the first quarter there are lots of culprits. But the one who stood out was linebacker Rob Ninkovich. He lost outside contain on at least four long runs and then inexplicably let Denver running backs break *inside* after that. It was ugly watching him play in the first half. He did have a fumble recovery and in the second half got a loooong sack (28 yards); but while blitzing the Denver quarterback he let Tim Tebow outside the pocket for big plays. All around a disappointing day from a usually solid-but-not-spectacular player.

As for the rest of the defense, it was a tale of two halves. The linebackers went for too many play-action fakes in the first half, but played better when they could ignore the run because of the big lead. The defensive line couldn't lay a glove on Denver's running backs early, but run-blitzed to clog things up in the second half. And the defensive backfield was left high-and-dry early on, as the front seven got repeatedly gashed and the safeties and corners broke coverage to make tackles. But in the second half, they mostly held their coverage long enough and were pretty tight on the receivers.

And to put it bluntly about the secondary, they are in big trouble if they don't get Patrick Chung back for the playoffs. The current safety play is the worst since Bob Kraft bought the team; too many bad angles and incorrect guesses (though in fairness the tackling is okay). On third-and-18 late in the game, Sergio Brown covered no one while Denver wideout Demaryius Thomas ran a deep sideline pattern for 39 yards. On the play Devin McCourty expected help, and on the replay it was obvious that help was supposed to be Brown.

Chung has been out for a while, and the Patriots have survived against lesser teams in his absence. But the team won't be going anywhere in the playoffs without improved safety play, and their only chance at that is a return by Chung.

Fortunately for the defense the offense converted three turnovers into points. After a fumble (forced by Ron Brace, recovered by Ninkovich), the Patriots settled for a field goal when a quick-pass to Aaron Hernandez in the end zone was just short. That was emblematic of quarterback Tom Brady's first half, when he had a few off-target passes and a middling 57% completions. But he drove them for a touchdown after a great play by linebacker Mark Anderson (strip-sack of Tebow *and* fumble recovery). And just before the half, a fumble on a late punt gave them a gift three points.

The Patriots started fast, with a 5-play, 80-yard touchdown that ended with a beautifully designed play on Chad Ochocinco's first Patriots score (33 yards along the left sideline). As mentioned, Brady wasn't sharp at first, and the offense stagnated after that initial drive. But the turnovers turned things around, and once they had the lead, Brady sliced the Denver defense the rest of the game. He had nine incompletions in the first half, and just two in the second half, and ended the day 23-34, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Hernandez was the receiving star of the day -- 9 grabs for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos defense obviously didn't want to get beaten by Wes Welker (4 for 41) or Rob Gronkowski (4 for 53), and that's the beauty of having so many offensive weapons. Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski can be covered one-on-one by linebackers or safeties, so the opponent has to choose whom to cover with a cornerback and hope the other one doesn't kill them. In this case, Hernandez was more than happy to benefit from double-teams on Welker and Gronkowski.

For the first time in a while, the leading rusher wasn't BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He couldn't get anything going, so the Pats brought in rookie Stevan Ridley and his patient style exposed gaps in the Denver D. He ran 11 times for 65 yards, and gave just the right change of pace to keep the Broncos honest and slow down the pass rush just enough. Danny Woodhead (7 for 40) had some nifty moves in traffic, and Brady had a few QB sneaks (one for a touchdown).

The coaching staff did a great job of adjusting this week. The first few series saw a lot of Denver pressure on Brady. So they used running backs and tight ends to chip the Denver pass rushers, and that calmed things down up front. And in the second half, they run-blitzed most of the time, and with a few very notable exceptions contained Tebow in the pocket. It was clear Tebow wasn't going to take chances with the ball, so with the pressure and his inexperience, he had a very bad second half.

So where does that leave us? 11-3 and winners of the AFC East, the Patriots now control whether or not they have a first-round playoff bye. If they win their last two games, they will rest the first week of the playoffs. And if they do that, and Pittsburgh loses one of their last three games, the Patriots will be the #1 seed in the AFC.

This week against Buffalo is less risky than the last game against Miami; but Buffalo already beat the Patriots once this year and they play better against the Pats in Foxboro. Hopefully the team won't overlook the Bills, and to that end, Bill Belichick has almost certainly reminded them about the 34-31 shootout they lost.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have given up over 250 rushing twice -- and won both games. They gave up 252 yesterday, and the other game was in 2002, can you name the opponent that day (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It looked to me like the Broncos were overwhelmed by the moment. Three fumbles by three young players; I think that tells you they were nervous."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-3!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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Despite giving up 256 yards on the ground, the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins on the last day of the season in 2002, 27-24.

Patriots Skin Washington, 34-27

2011-12-12T01:30:00.002-05:00

The Patriots survived another close one but came out on top of Washington, 34-27. The win kept them two games ahead of the Jets in the AFC East and one win (or a Jets loss) from claiming another division crown. (Note: I misinformed you last week -- the Patriots did not clinch the AFC East title with their win. My apologies.) Up next is a match with Tim Tebow and the Broncos in Denver, which if you ask the six teams he's beaten will be no easy task.

Yesterday's game in Washington was back and forth, and featured more scoring by Mike Shanahan's charges than many expected. But after three quarters of high-powered offense, the teams went 0-for the fourth quarter and traded red zone interceptions to effectively end the game. Tom Brady giveth, and Jerod Mayo taketh away, and the Patriots escaped with their fifth consecutive win.

One Patriots player was a microcosm of the entire Patriots defense, as that unit played almost exactly the way corner Devin McCourty did as an individual. Both gave up too many big gains in the passing game. Both stuffed the inside run but lost contain and missed assignments on outside rushes and misdirection/trick plays. And both took bad drops and angles that gave Washington too much room in zone coverage. But in the end both McCourty and the defense made big plays at critical times to stop drives and force turnovers or punts.

McCourty allowed three big plays to former Patriots receivers Donte Stallworth (51 and 23 yards) and Jabar Gaffney (23 yards). But he also notched three passes defended and eight tackles on the day, including plays that forced punts on two of the last three Washington drives. The Patriots need to see more of the latter from McCourty as they drive toward the playoffs.

His secondary mates didn't fare very well at all. Safety James Ihedigbo blew coverage on two touchdowns (one trick play, one "pick" play), and Kyle Arrington had six tackles but did little to stop passes from being completed. As a unit, they gave up 15.1 yards a catch, a number that usually loses you the game. It is probably enough to say that wide receiver Julian Edelman had the second best coverage on the day, and that the only non-McCourty pass knock-downs were by linebackers (Jerod Mayo and Tracy White).

Speaking of linebackers, they are just barely holding that unit together. Mayo is fine now, looking fully recovered from his injury. He followed-up his first career interception last week with his second yesterday -- a game-saving INT as Washington was driving for a tying score. He topped the team with eight tackles and even got some pressure on the quarterback.

Rob Ninkovich is okay, but seems overmatched in pass coverage and trying to hold the edge against the run. It was nice to see Dane Fletcher back, but they really need Brandon Spikes to return. He isn't great, but he gives the unit an intangible stability and attitude. The press overblows how well Spikes plays, but whenever he's out there, Mayo plays better and they seem to cover the mid-level passing game a lot more effectively.

Along the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love (in concert with Mayo, McCourty, and Fletcher) did a really nice job clogging up runs through the middle. The problems came with the classic Shanahan "stretch play" around end. Andre Carter and Mark Anderson were forced past the quarterback and neutralized by the stretch play too often.

Carter did come up with an important forced fumble (recovered by Wilfork for his first career touchdown). But if the Patriots don't want to get run over next week, they will have to do better forcing the run back inside. Note: both Brandon Deaderick and Shawn Ellis did fine in spot duty; though the team probably expected more from Ellis this season.

The offense called 40 pass plays and just 18 rushes. In one way it made sense; they averaged 16.2 yards a catch for the game. But in another way it made no sense at all. Tom Brady and his receivers (Deion Branch and Wes Welker specifically) had communication problems early in the game. And Brady missed a wide open Danny Woodhead on an easy check-down -- all of which left him under 50% completions at the half.

The passing attack eventually got in sync, and combined with the no-huddle, the pace was lightning fast (average scoring drive was just 2:53). Tom Brady's stats were wonderful as usual (22 of 37 for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But the one interception was crucial, as the Patriots could have iced the game with a field goal and only needed to avoid that turnover. I heard he had words with the offensive coordinator after that; maybe there's a news story posted somewhere about that.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to be the Chuck Norris of Patriots receivers, an unstoppable force that appears to dominate effortlessly. He had 6 catches for 160 yards and grabbed 2 touchdown passes for the sixth time this year, which leads the entire NFL (trivia question: name the player in second place with four such games this season, answer below). Welker was his usual indispensable self (7-86, 1 touchdown).

The other tight end, Aaron Hernandez, diversified the passing game with 5 for 84. And Chad Ochocinco got his requisite one catch (for an important first down), and that was about it for the passing game. Still a little too dependent on a few receivers, but very effective yesterday.

And you can't have an effective passing game without at least good offensive line play. Which is what the Patriots got, good O-line play, not great, not bad, just good. The O-line allowed a little too much pressure (1 sack, 6 quarterback hits) and didn't open up many rushing lanes (except for Woodhead's shotgun runs). They do have the injury excuse; they had only seven offensive linemen active for the game, including rookies Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder (who started).

The running game isn't really worth mentioning; so I'll be brief. Danny Woodhead worked well out of the shotgun (8 rushes for 41 yards), but you know you can't run when you bring in 35 year-old Kevin Faulk to give the running attack a shot in the arm. And no matter what they think, the Patriots can't line up in a power formation and run the ball against any decent defense. So they should probably stop trying -- deception works much better for them.

Special teams contributed a huge play early when Zoltan Mesko booted a punt that was downed inside the five yard-line by Matthew Slater. That turned into a fumble in the end zone and a New England touchdown; which is big in a game you win by seven points. Other than that, Julian Edelman had a nice punt return, and the kickoffs were plenty deep enough. But most of the field goals were easily make-able, so nothing special there.

In the battle of coaching wits, it appeared that Mike Shanahan won this round. He always gives Belichick a tough game, and if he had better talent (you know, better than a 4-9 record would indicate), he might have pulled this one out. And there was the argument on the sideline, something between a well-known quarterback and an unknown offensive coordinator. Not sure the details, but I'll have to check into it.

So where does that leave us? 10-3 and one game from an AFC East crown, that's where! The game next week is interesting, because the Patriots excel at beating teams with one-dimensional offenses, which is mostly what the Denver Broncos have. However, the game against Washington showed the Pats defense is vulnerable to outside runs, which his where the Broncos excel. An intriguing one for sure -- especially when you consider how badly the Patriots have played in Denver over the years.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Kansas City Chiefs versus the AFC East this year: 0-4 and outscored 141-23.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "How bad is the Pats secondary? Two linebackers and a defensive lineman are tied for second on the team with 2 interceptions each. That's pretty bad." (Trivia question #2: name those players, answer below.)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-3!

PPS. Trivia Answers:
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Answer #1: Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions started the season with four consecutive games with two touchdown catches (and he has no such games since then).

Answer #2: Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork and linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo are tied for the second-most interceptions on the Patriots.

Patriots Hold Off Late Rally For 31-24 Victory

2011-12-05T01:10:00.000-05:00

Don't let the final score fool you; the Patriots dominated most of the day and sent the Colts back to Indianapolis with a 31-24 loss and an embarrassing 0-12 record. The win puts the Patriots one win (or one loss by the New York Jets) away from their fourteenth division title, and keeps them in the race for the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC. Next up is a road trip to the nation's capital for a date with the boys from Washington.

Indy is so bad this season, they've only held the lead against one team that currently sports a winning record, and that lead lasted only 4:05 of game time. (Trivia question: name the team -- answer below.) And the Patriots did what good teams do when they play bad ones; they dominated and built up a four-touchdown lead. Unfortunately, they let off the offensive accelerator and allowed the Colts to rally back to a one-score loss.

Ill-timed penalties and costly turnovers didn't help the Colts' cause; but it didn't help to be playing one of the top teams in the AFC. Tom Brady was his usual magnificent self (29 of 38, 293 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 115.4 rating), Wes Welker caught all 11 passes thrown his way (for 114 yards), and budding superstar Dan Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns -- and he ran for a third.

Brady spread the ball around to seven receivers, completing important throws to Deion Branch and even getting one to Chad Ochocinco and another to newcomer Tiquan Underwood. The running backs gained just 73 yards total (3.0 yards per carry), and the load was also spread around pretty evenly among Stevan Ridley (8 carries for 33 yards), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (6 for 14), and Danny Woodhead (4 for 12).

The offensive line did a good job in pass protection, in concert with short passing routes and quick releases. Not much of a running game to speak of; but they did keep Brady mostly clean on the day. And their third center of the year, Nick MacDonald... well, he didn't screw up any of the snaps, so that's good.

On defense, Vince Wilfork dominated inside, with 10 tackles and a sack. Newly signed defensive back Nate Jones had 9 tackles, and wide receiver Matthew Slater tied tackling machine Jerod Mayo for third on the team with 7 (note: Mayo added a spectacular interception). Slater played safety for much of the game, and did a poor job in coverage but apparently a good job tackling.

Corner Devin McCourty returned from injury, but to mixed reviews. He gave up completions on plays where he was in position to knock the ball away, but it is his first game back, so he deserves some slack. At least he isn't coming back closer to the playoffs; which would magnify every mistake -- the timing of his return gives him a few weeks to round into shape.

Not much pass rush this week. Outside rushers Andre Carter and Mark Anderson totaled 3 tackles, 0 sacks, and 0 QB pressures between them. Oft-rushing linebacker Rob Ninkovich did better all by himself -- adding a sack and a QB pressure to his own 3 tackles. Overall, still no sign the Pats will have much of a pass rush in the post-season; unless they get better play in the secondary, and that depends on improvement by McCourty and the healthy return of safety Patrick Chung.

Special teams have now recovered four consecutive onside kicks (including one called back for a penalty yesterday). Other than that, kicker Stephen Gostkowski had plenty of distance kicking with the wind and not enough against it. Punter Zoltan Mesko had an impressive 46.8 average; though he booted only one of them into the wind. And wide receiver (and defensive back) Julian Edelman makes very nifty moves on both punt and kickoff returns.

Nothing inspired about the coaching, except perhaps the experiment with Slater at safety. One hopes that doesn't mean Chung is out for the playoffs.

So where does that leave us? As stated above, 9-3 and one win from a division title sounds like the right place to be in early-December. The game in Washington is unlikely to tell us much about the Patriots defense; but Mike Shanahan's crew has a good defense, so it's a chance for the Pats offense to test themselves again.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Colts QB Dan Orlovsky posted the best quarterback rating of his career (113.2). He'd never topped 100 before Sunday.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Can't verify this easily, but I believe Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a career high in tackles yesterday. He made two tackles, one on the Colts fumble, and the other on the Colts interception.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Packers and Niners get all the headlines, but the Pats clinch the AFC East with their next win."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-3!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Colts led the 9-3 Pittsburgh Steelers for just over four minutes.

Patriots Roar Back To Beat Eagles 38-20

2011-11-28T02:30:00.000-05:00

The Patriots scored on multiple long drives to overcome an early deficit and emerge with a 38-20 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The win gives them effectively a three-game lead over their nearest division rivals (three games over Buffalo, two games and a tie-breaker over New York). And they enjoy a psuedo-bye with a "contest" against the absolutely pathetic, 0-11, Manning-less Colts. At home, at 1:00 for a change.

This one didn't look good at first, with a quick 10-0 lead for Philly on two quick-strike scoring drives. The defense was reeling, couldn't make a play, and on the second drive they were lucky to stop Philly for the field goal. But just when the game could have gotten out of hand and the defense needed some rest and time to regroup, the offense stepped up with a 12-play, 70-yard, 6:52 touchdown drive.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Patriots used that time to rest and make adjustments, and Philly scored on only two of their last nine possessions (including a garbage-time touchdown to make the score more respectable). The linebackers and secondary stopped going for play-action fakes, and combined with a Eagles' miscues (ill-timed penalties and dropped passes), the Pats rode a machine-like offense to an easy win.

The defensive line did a credible job up front all day; moving Eagles quarterback Vince Young around in the pocket without giving him too many big running plays. Inside linemen Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love applied pressure up the middle, while Andre Carter and Mark Anderson (and occasionally linebacker Rob Ninkovich) looped around the outside to keep Young in the pocket. Young made them pay with big plays early; but after making the necessary adjustments, the pressure harassed Young enough to knock him off his game.

The linebackers were confused and out of position early on -- biting on play-action fakes and leaving huge gaps in the defense. But once things settled down, they let the Eagles run; and of course, once the Patriots got a big lead, running the ball wasn't going to do it any more. Still without Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton (2 tackles) and special-teamer Tracy White (4) were pressed into service, and it showed. Both let backs and tight ends run away from them, but in their defense (no pun intended), they did battle to stop receivers short of first downs and competed on pass plays when they were close enough.

Ninkovich is blossoming, now that the defensive ends are getting pressure on the quarterbacks. He obviously does well on his first read, so when the opposing QB doesn't have time for a second- or third-read, Ninkovich looks a lot better. Jerod Mayo was uncharacteristically quiet (3 tackles), obviously affected by the active Eagles offensive line and plays that seriously took him into account. Pass coverage is not Mayo's strong suit; and it showed with a couple of coverage problems.

Julian Edelman helped the secondary immeasurably. That's right, the wide receiver -- he had a pressure that caused an incompletion late in the game, made a first-down-saving tackle with the game still in doubt, made a perfect tackle on Vince Young's attempted touchdown scramble, and shut down -- that's right -- shut down Eagles wideout DeSean Jackson. He covered Jackson three times that I saw, and each time Jackson couldn't shake free.

The other defensive backs were pretty good... after the first ten minutes or so. Kyle Arrington got beaten a few times, but had two passes defended and ten tackles. His compete-level is off the charts; I'd hate to play "chicken" with him, because he'd never give in. Antwaun Molden has played 43 NFL games, and he had his second pass defended and his first interception in this one. And the interception came in the second quarter, with the game still very much in doubt.

Bill Belichick said recently that even though the secondary players weren't drafted high and they didn't come from renowned schools, he'd go to battle with them. He stated that they take coaching, do what they are supposed to do, and compete hard on every play, and that is true of the whole crew. They might even help him to a 12-4 record. But even Belichick will feel a lot better if Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty return to the lineup.

On offense, it was another slow start for quarterback Tom Brady. He took some serious hits on the first drive, and the Patriots mixed in an effective running attack after that to slow down the Philadelphia pass rush. The stat sheet lists only one sack and two quarterback hits of Brady, but he got hit at least ten times in this game. However, you have to give the Patriots credit for using the run and the no-huddle to slow down the pass rush.

Brady had three spectacular plays that deserve special mention. On the first one, he made a free blitzer whiff and stepped up, directing Deion Branch down the sideline, and he completed the pass for 63 yards. On the second, he threw a perfect hardball pass to Wes Welker in the flat, and Welker turned quickly to reach out for the touchdown. The third was a perfect pass over the middle to tight end Rob Gronkowski, just after he broke free and just before the safety got in to break up the pass. On the day Brady completed 24 of 34 for 361 yards, 3 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 134.6 passer rating. He also had two scrambles (and two divots).

Welker (8 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Branch (6 for 125) led the receivers, with tight ends Gronkowski (4 for 59 and 1) and Aaron Hernandez (6 for 62) doing their usual "matchup nightmare" thing. Philly is the third team to cover Gronkowski with their best corner (Nnamdi Asomugha in this case), but to no avail. And it looked like Brady could complete a pass to Hernandez whenever he wanted.

Branch and Welker were in total sync with the quarterback, a good thing as the team heads into December. However, a word of caution from someone who's seen this before. Completing passes to only four receivers is not a recipe for playoff success. The running backs and other receivers need to be more involved; because in the post-season, defenses are usually good enough to stop the #1 and sometimes #2 receivers.

Brady was also the second leading rusher, complementing BenJarvus Green-Ellis (14 carries for 44 yards). Danny Woodhead was more involved, and Shane Vereen got into the act late (7 for 18). Overall not a lot of production; but every running play was crucial, because they got enough yardage to keep the Eagles defense honest, and that slowed down the pass rush (which was killing Brady early on).

The offensive line didn't do very well. Only 2.9 yards a rush, the aforementioned hits on Brady, and Brian Waters had his worst game since joining the team. Waters committed two consecutive holding penalties, he completely missed his man on a sweep, and at least two QB hits that were his fault. He has been rock-solid, so no doubt he'll improve again. One other O-line note: Ryan Wendell is the third player to start at center, and at least his snaps were perfect.

Special teams didn't break one like last week. But most important of all, they neutralized the Philadelphia punt return game. DeSean Jackson can break one for a touchdown every return, but punter Zoltan Mesko kicked 'em high enough to get two fair catches. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski did miss another field goal -- this time from 39 yards. Something tells me he might be affected by the relative revolving-door at long snapper. The team has had three long snappers in the last three years -- two of them rookies.

The coaching during the week is a bit suspect, because of the slow starts. The Patriots hadn't scored a first-quarter touchdown in five games; and almost didn't score one yesterday. However, the offensive and defensive adjustments were outstanding during the game. Any time you are down 10-0 and then go on a 38-3 run, your coaches did a fine job of fixing what was wrong.

So where does that leave us? An 8-3 record is good enough for a share of the lead for #1 seed in the AFC. As stated above, the Patriots have what amounts to a three-game lead in the division with five games to play. It isn't really a Bye week against the Colts; but the Patriots should handle them at home next Sunday.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Wide receiver Matthew Slater has one career reception and one career rush... and two fumbles lost. (Trivia question: name the only other non-quarterback on the Patriots 2011 roster with more than with more than one lost fumble... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Everyone said this game wouldn't show us much about the Patriots, but it did show the Pats coaches can out-adjust the best of 'em -- even Andy Reid. Though it helps to be facing Vince Young."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Longtime Patriots running back Kevin Faulk has lost 16 fumbles in his career, although he does have 1,567 touches.

PPPS. Note on fumbles: current non-QBs on the Patriots have lost fumbles only 0.65% of the time they ran or received the ball. In 3,683 touches (in a Patriots uniform), they have just 24 fumbles -- here is a list of how it breaks down:

Kevin Faulk: 1567 touches, 16 fumbles lost (1%)

Wes Welker: 628, 1 (0.16%)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 503, 0 (0.0%)

Deion Branch: 352, 1 (0.28%)

Danny Woodhead : 210, 1 (0.48%)

Rob Gronkowski: 103, 1 (0.97%)

Julian Edelman: 121, 1 (0.83%)

Aaron Hernandez: 96, 1 (1.04%)

Stevan Ridley: 50, 0 (0.0%)

Matthew Slater: 27, 2 (7.41%)

Shane Vereen: 15, 0 (0.0%)

Chad Ochocinco: 11, 0 (0.0%)

Sort of puts into perspective how disappointing Matthew Slater is.

Patriots Dispatch Chiefs With Ease, 34-3

2011-11-22T02:15:00.000-05:00

Most everything looked easy for the Patriots in last night's 34-3 drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs. The win gave the Pats a two-game cushion in the division over the reeling Buffalo Bills and slipping New York Jets. Next up is the Eagles in Philadelphia, on a short week that includes extra time off for Thanksgiving. No easy task; but of course, the Eagles have to deal with some of the same distractions, so it should all come out in the wash.

Not a whole lot to report; just about everything that could go right for the Pats did, and just about everything that could go wrong for the Chiefs did. The Chiefs won the first quarter 3-0, and the Patriots won the next three quarters 10-0, 17-0, and 7-0. Sometimes that's the way it goes, especially when your quarterback is starting his first NFL game at age 28.

Quarterback Tom Brady was held in check for most of the first half; getting sacked three times and harassed on many other plays will do that to you. Obviously old friend Romeo Crennel had some surprises for Brady, but once the Patriots figured out the defense, it was game over. The offensive line kept him clean the second half, and he finished with a 109.2 rating and 2 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

The running game was a bit of a mixed bag. There were lots of plays that got stuffed; but in the end, it totaled 157 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards per rush). BenJarvus Green-Ellis (20 carries for 81 yards) led the way, while Danny Woodhead (5 for 27) got important yards on inside handoffs, and rookie Shane Vereen (8 for 39 and 1 touchdown) showed some nifty moves and moved the pile on a fourth-down run for a score.

The tight ends starred again among receivers. Aaron Hernandez (4 catches for 44 yards) caught two important passes on the first touchdown drive, and Rob Gronkowski (4 for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns) showed speed and moves on two touchdowns where he tiptoed along the sideline. The rest of the passing game was mostly an afterthought, though it was spread around evenly, which is usually a good sign.

Offensive line play was down in the first 20 minutes and then picked up to give Brady time at the end of the half and for the entire second half. That owed partially to more consistent running plays in the second half; although those also reflect well on the offensive line. Additionally, they did a nice job blocking on screen passes, which haven't gone very well in recent weeks; so that's an area of improvement.

Defensively the plan appeared to be stopping the run and forcing quarterback Tyler Palko, to beat them through the air. He did so on the Chiefs only scoring drive; but after that it was "Bad Palko." Secondary play confused him into holding the ball, which allowed the pressure to get to him, which forced bad throws, which gave the Patriots three interceptions. In other words, Palko couldn't handle the Patriots team defense.

Andre Carter and Mark Anderson brought the heat from the outside line positions, getting 0.5 and 1.5 sacks, respectively. Carter also blew up several running plays and a screen pass before they could get started. And Rob Ninkovich got the third sack of Palko, and also pressured him into his first interception. Note also that the sacks came at critical times, with the Chiefs trying to claw their way back into the game and the defense needing to come up big.

NFL interception leader Kyle Arrington got two of the easiest picks of his career, and unknown corner Phillip Adams got a total gift when Palko thew into quadruple coverage in the end zone.

The kick-return team should have been more ready for the onside kick; though the Chiefs blew it (as they did so much yesterday), so it didn't cost them. The Pats did give up a long punt return, though they got an even longer one back when Julian Edelman zigged and zagged his way through Kansas City for a 72-yard return touchdown.

The coaches made nice adjustments after the first quarter. And they did not get surprised/beaten by a young quarterback, which has often been the case the first time they see one (see Matt Shaub with Atlanta, Chad Henne with Miami, or Ben Roethlisberger with Pittsburgh).

So where does that leave us? A 7-3 record puts them currently atop the AFC, two full games ahead of Buffalo (with one remaining game with them) and essentially three ahead of New york (with tie breakers). The Eagles game will be no picnic; they have an explosive offense (for once you can believe Belichick when he says this), an opportunistic defense, and are desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Colts won ten games last year and have zero wins so far this year. If they go winless, they will tie the record for the biggest single-season decline in wins in NFL history. (Trivia question: name the team that currently holds that record. Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots have outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 93-3 in the two games my friend April has attended (last night, and the 59-0 destruction of Tennessee two years ago). With that track record in mind, please let me know if you want to set up a fund to make sure she attends all future games (or at least playoff games).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I guess there's a reason Palko was starting his first NFL game at age 29."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Houston Oilers won 12 games in 1993 and just 2 games in 1994, which is the current "gold standard" for declining wins from one year to the next. Maybe that's why the team doesn't even exist any more.

Patriots Outclass Jets in 37-16 Win

2011-11-14T02:15:00.000-05:00

The Patriots defense (that's right the Patriots defense) dominated and the offense cashed in every opportunity, and the Patriots 37-16 road win re-proved they are the class of the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills lost along with the Jets, and that puts New England a full game up on the Bills and with essentially a two-game lead (with tie-breakers) over the Jets. Next week it's a Monday night tilt with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are fighting for their playoff life in the suddenly competitive AFC West.

The first half of this one was ugly until the last 4:44, when each team "exploded" for long touchdown drives to move the score from 6-2 to 13-9 at the half. But the Pats took over in the second half. They converted three turnovers into 17 points, held the Jets to a mere 7 in the entire half, and rode their impressive defense to a convincing win.

The defensive effort was even more unexpected given who missed the game and who left with injuries. Two rookie free agents started -- Sterling Moore at safety and Jeff Tarpinian at linebacker -- guys so unknown they hadn't even recorded an introduction for the Sunday Night crew. Pat Chung missed the game, which gave them almost no depth at safety, and the Pats had so few linebackers they were forced to go with a 4-3, even with injuries on the defensive line.

However, the defense responded, especially the much maligned pass rush. The defensive line got in the grill of Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez all day long; and no surprise Andre Carter led the way -- with 4.5 sacks (matching his total for the season) and 8 quarterback hits. He was joined at the quarterback by Mark Anderson, and blitzing linebackers and safeties forced Sanchez to throw quicker than he wanted (he completed just 51.2% of his passes)

Carter and Mark Anderson employed things often forbidden by Patriots coaches -- spin moves, twists, and stunts -- to get to the QB.For years the Pats insisted on a controlled pass rush, fearing that surprise running plays would gash them. But it seems to have sunk in that "gap control" just isn't working, and a nod of acknowledgment to the coaching staff for realizing it. With Carter leading the way, the defensive line was around Sanchez all day long, moving him off his spot and forcing early throws for most of the game. Amazing how much better they played without Albert Haynesworth, who was cut this week.

Another oft-maligned group -- the linebackers -- had a pretty stellar performance, too, especially since only five of them dressed for the game. Rob Ninkovich notched the second two-interception game of his career, returning one for a game-icing touchdown. (Trivia question: name the year and opponent of his first two-INT game; answer below.) The rest of the linebackers didn't have the spectacular game Ninkovich did; but they had the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth most tackles on the night, and held up well enough against the run. They even helped pressure the quarterback, as noted above.

And the secondary... how to describe the desperation in the secondary? How about street free agent James Ihedigbo being the "seasoned veteran" at safety; or maybe Sterling Moore and Ross Ventron moving from the practice squad last Wednesday and Saturday (respectively) and playing significant time; or injuries forcing wide receiver Julian Edelman to play cornerback at the end of the game.

Under the circumstances, they held up pretty well. The Jets got just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and at least two of the sacks and a few Sanchez scrambles were caused by good downfield coverage. Part of the credit goes to the coaches, who did a great job mixing blitzes and eight-man drops, confusing the Jets for just that extra moment the defense needed.

The offense started slowly in the first half. Quarterback Tom Brady led them on two 50+ yard drives, hitting Chad OchoFinallyShowed on each one -- but both drives stalled and the Pats got just two field goals. But after the Jets scored to take a 9-6 lead, Brady drove right down the field for an answering touchdown. The Jets field the best pass defense by far (giving up an aggregate QB rating of 59.4), but Brady torched them in the second half, and ended the game 26 of 39 for 329 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions, and a 118.4 rating.

Brady's favorite receiver was tight end Rob Gronkowski... and frankly, he'd be mine, too. His 6' 7" frame, great hands, and great routes make him a devastating matchup problem. He caught 8 passes for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns -- even all-world corner Darrelle Revis couldn't stop him. Wes Welker hae the quietest 6 catches (for 46 yards) of the year, and Chad Ochocinco finally contributed with two long receptions (for 65 yards).

The passes were distributed a lot more evenly this game, which is important going forward. With no legitimate deep threat, the Patriots can't let other teams key on one or two receivers -- i.e. Welker and Gronkowski. So it's encouraging to see Deion Branch grab 5 catches for 58 yards and an important touchdown, and Aaron Hernandez get 4 for 41 yards.

Running back Danny Woodhead led the running game with 38 yards on 7 rushes. Other than that, not much to speak of, except for a clean Tom Brady; a credit to blocking backs, tight ends, and of course, the offensive line. It wasn't pretty -- there were injuries there, too -- but the line kept the quarterback upright, no sacks given up and no passes batted at the line of scrimmage. Center Dan Connolly blew a shotgun snap (tossing the ball to a very surprised Brady); but all-in-all not bad for a game with as much crowd noise complex blitzing as this one.

Special teams had an up-and-down day; pouncing on a fumbled punt ("up") and giving up a few too many yards on kickoff returns ("down"). However, Stephen Gostkowski went 3-3 on field goals, while his counterpart missed a 24 yard attempt on the Jets first drive. Gostkowski probably empathized with Nick Folk on that play -- he missed a 27 yard kick last week.

And big ups to the Patriots coaching staff this week. They cut malcontent Haynesworth, trucked in secondary guys from nowhere and made it work, diversified the passing offense enough to put up 37 against one of the better defenses in the league, and even got Ochochino involved in the offense.

So where does that leave us? 6-3 and on top of the division -- it has a familiar ring but it is a good ring. Buffalo appears to be fading, the Jets are now two-games behind the Pats (including tie-breakers), and the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire league. Their run for the playoffs begins next week, against a Chiefs team that might be missing its quarterback (Matt Cassel apparently had a cast on his throwing hand as he left the stadium today). In other words... for the moment, life is good.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Believe it or not, the Jets and Patriots are giving up the exact same number of points per game this season (22.2).

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In four games against the Patriots this year, teams from New York (Jets twice, Giants, and Bills) scored an average of 6.5 points in the first half. But the Patriots are only 2-2 in those games.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I think Bart Scott's the one with the nosebleed now!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Rob Ninkovich had two interceptions in the Patriots 41-14 victory at Miami last year (October 4, 2010).

Giants Get Last Laugh in 24-20 Win

2011-11-07T00:20:00.003-05:00

The Patriots couldn't cash in first half opportunities, and let a late lead slip through their fingers, ultimately losing to 24-20 on a very late Giants touchdown. Their 5-3 record puts them in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East, and they are on a two-game losing streak for the first time in two years. Next up is the other entry from NYC, the 5-3 Jets in New York. Should be a barn-burner.

It might be time to face a sad fact about the Pats -- they might be one of the many 50-50 teams in the NFL. Those are teams that beat up on bad teams, but when they get in close contests with good teams, they are no better than a 50-50 shot to win. They used to close out games like that with regularity; but their last four games that fit the bill and they are 2-2. The 2003 and 2004 seasons seem like a long time ago.

Even though the first half featured exactly zero points by both teams combined, it was really where the Patriots lost the game. The offense had no flow or tempo, and their best chances to take a lead were a 54-yard drive that ended in a Tom Brady interception and an 83-yard drive that ended with a missed 27-yard field goal. In a game where points were at such a premium, six or ten points would have made a huge difference.

Brady didn't help matters much when the Patriots got the ball to start the second half, throwing an interception on the first drive. He fumbled on the next possession, but the fault there lies with the offensive line. On the day, Brady was a very pedestrian 28 of 49 for 342 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He was harassed by the Giants pass rush much of the day, and looked confused and frustrated as New York alternated blitzes with eight-man drops and tight man-to-man with zone and zone-blitz.

The offensive line was just as confused, and probably just as often beaten physically. The official statistics only list three quarterback hits, but it seemed like Brady was throwing just before a big hit about one-third of the dropbacks. They also let up two sacks and the pressure led to both interceptions (and of course to the fumble). They did block for a running game that got 4.4 yards a carry, and they get credit for that, so it wasn't all bad.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis led the running backs with 12 carries for 52 yards. It wasn't all pretty; but he made some nice moves, especially hopping over defenders twice to get first downs on third-and-short. Both Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead looked pretty effective in the passing game, too, and it's a mystery why they weren't featured more, especially given the Giants success at shutting down the main pass receivers.

And speaking of receivers, it is really the Wes Welker (9 catches for 136 yards) and Rob Gronkowski (8 for 101 and 1 touchdown) show at this point. Deion Branch (2 for 21) can't seem to beat single coverage, and Aaron Hernandez (4 for 35) appears to be struggling to get back to full speed after his knee injury. And don't get me started on Chad OchoNoShow (credit for the nickname to Allan "The Foxboro Weather God") -- why they bothered targeting him five times is beyond me. Taylor Price was out with an injury; maybe they thought Ocho would provide something of a deep threat. As usual this season, they were disappointed.

The defense played well enough to expect a win. People will probably focus on the last two drives (that both ended in touchdowns) because... well, because they can't bring themselves to blame Brady and the offense. But the defense pitched a first half shutout without benefit of a turnover, held the Giants scoreless on 9 of 13 possessions, got a key interception when New York was about to take a two-score lead, and held the Giants to 29% on third down conversions. A wasted effort; but even with the 24 points given up, this loss is not on the defense.

The defensive line received an unexpected boost from the return of Brandon Deaderick (#71 on your scorecard). He played at least half the time and did a very good job collapsing the pocket on Giants QB Eli Manning. In fact, he, Andre Carter, and Vince Wilfork did a decent job moving Manning off the spot, and they hit him a lot after the pass. Carter gets more and more double-teams, and even Rob Ninkovich got in the act with some QB pressure. Unfortunately no sacks on the day; but they had him on the run like they should have. And they were also instrumental in holding the vaunted Giants running game to 3.8 yards a carry.

Even with Ninkovich's improved play, the linebackers are a real problem. The issue of depth was never addressed in the off-season, and it's coming home to roost now. Jerod Mayo is back and he played okay yesterday, though he's obviously not 100%. Brandon Spikes actually lived up to his billing, making tackles and forcing action with well-timed blitzes. But after that, there's no one to take up the slack. Spikes was injured in the second half, and the Giants feasted on Gary Guyton in coverage. And when Guyton went down too, special teamer Tracy White gave up the final touchdown.

This area of the defense was thin to start with, and injuries have made it a real problem. It's probably not premature to call Mayo injury-prone (though he is a fast healer). Spikes is a legitimate starter but Guyton and Ninkovich are limited in pass coverage. Meanwhile, OLBs Jermaine Cunningham and Mark Anderson are mostly pass-rush specialists, and Cunningham hasn't been seen much this year. It is very difficult to put together a good defense with one unit this undermanned.

And speaking of undermanned, how about that secondary. Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington are actually holding their own these days, both improving from earlier in the year (not that there was anywhere to go but up). But Arrington is feast or famine, getting a key interception to keep the game within reach and then giving up a 35-yard penalty and a touchdown two drives later. And it is not helping that journeymen Phillip Adams and Sergio Brown are out there -- both gave up plays in the Giants furious fourth quarter.

The safety position would look a lot better with James Sanders next to Patrick Chung. But the team cut Sanders just before they cut another 2010 starter, Brandon Meriweather. If their backup plan was Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo, and Josh Barrett, then the braintrust over there needs to have its collective head examined. The team could get away with one bad unit, but both the linebackers and secondary need serious help. And it doesn't appear that help is on the way.

Special teams could have played better, and pretty easily. If Gostkowski hit his 27-yard field goal or if Julian Edelman didn't fumble on a punt return, the Pats might have snuck out of town with a win. But in a game this close, you can't have simple, correctable mistakes like that. The Patriots did, and it cost them.

As for the coaching, where were the screen passes or draw plays to slow down the pass rush? Why not throw to running backs over the middle, at least until the Giants stopped it? After the first hideous pass route by OchoNoShow, why throw his way four more times? In the first half, you had a fourth-and-one and a fourth-and-two -- why not just admit that you don't have a fake punt in the playbook?

So where does that leave us? 5-3 is on pace for 10-6 -- which was the Giants regular-season record the year they beat us in the Super Bowl. So that's cause for hope, right? Well, maybe not. In any event, the suddenly formidable Jets are up next, as the Patriots try to avoid their first three-game losing streak since... can you name the year, and perhaps even the teams? (Answer below.)

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The last three games, Tom Brady led the team to 20 points or fewer. The last time that happened was weeks 6 - 8 of the 2003 season. Note: the Patriots won all three games in 2003.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the blueprint is closer than ever; play tight man-coverage and redirect receivers at the line. Time for the geniuses at Patriots Place to make some adjustments."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost four straight games in 2002: 21-14 to San Diego, 26-13 to Miami, 28-10 to Green Bay, and 24-16 to Denver.

Steelers Decipher (and Defeat) Patriots, 25-17

2011-10-31T01:27:00.000-04:00

It was bound to happen eventually, and yesterday it did -- he Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to beat Tom Brady. The Steelers notched a convincing 25-17 win and in the process vaulted to the head of the AFC pack with six wins. The loss set the Patriots back to 5-2 and into a tie with the victorious Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East. The 5-2 New York Giants come to town next week, so things don't look like they are getting much easier.

There is a lot to tell about this game; but frankly not much about the Patriots, who had too many defensive breakdowns to mention and did virtually nothing on offense except for one long drive. So not as much detail on specific players this week, but more about how the Steelers changed their stripes to deliver a decisive win.

The Pittsburgh Offense had been inflexible over the years. They would often try to establish physical dominance rather than adjust schemes that weren't working. But not yesterday. With improved deep threats at wide receiver, they spread out the Patriots defense to force match- ups and they took what the defense gave them.

Ask tight end Heath Miller about the results, if he ever comes back down from cloud nine. Miller caught 7 passes for 85 yards, both career highs against the Patriots. He repeatedly gashed them right down the middle, and he totaled five first downs (four on the first drive) and forced defensive adjustments that allowed his team to complete long throws to wide open receivers.

Give the Steelers offensive coaching staff credit for changing an old system that did not work. They had five drives of 10+ plays each and held the ball for 39:22 (almost two-thirds of the game). And they caused almost as much confusion and as many mental mistakes as the Saints did in their 2009 embarrassment of the Patriots, and that game had an epic series of breakdowns.

The Steelers defense used to play almost exclusively zone against the Patriots, and they would hold off blitzing until they had the Pats in stressful down-and-distance situations. And predictably, Tom Brady would shred them with short gains that kept the chains moving and sustained drives.

But in yesterday's game, the Steelers unveiled something that appeared to take a page from Buddy Ryan's old "46" defense. It's been years since I saw 10 men across the line of scrimmage that often; and though the Steelers didn't blitz as much as Ryan did from the formation, they slowed down and redirected receivers at the line to disrupt pass patterns.

The plan worked beautifully. Even though Brady completed 68.5% of his passes, he was sacked three times and threw for just 198 yards. And perhaps most important, the Patriots couldn't sustain drives. Their only first-half touchdown was 2 play, 8 yard "drive." They somehow had a drive with 9 plays and only 11 yards gained. And their only sustained drive in the first half ended with a field goal. And when they came out in the second half, with a chance to tie the game, they went three-and-out.

And in a stunning development, the Steelers special teams actually outplayed the Patriots. They had better kickoff returns (averaging 27 yards to 18.5) and hit 75% of their field goals to the Patriots 50%.

As for the Patriots, there is mostly blame everywhere, but there were a few bright spots. Kevin Faulk returned from a devastating 2010 knee injury, and he started and played well (though I suspect he missed a blitzer late in the game -- Brady stopped over for a chat with Faulk after the play). Rob Gronkowski continues to impress, and safety Sergio Brown made one or two nice plays.

Jerod Mayo got back on the field, and looked a little rusty, even though he's a marked improvement over Gary Guyton (interception notwithstanding). Andre Carter is becoming their one pass rushing threat -- he had two sacks and a QB hit on Sunday. And even though their names are rarely on people's lips, both Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork do great work inside. Still little pressure on the QB (though each got a sack yesterday), but it is tough to run through that middle.

One other encouraging note is how many times Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had to hold the ball beyond his initial reads. Three of the sacks were caused by great coverage, and Roethlisberger often had to pull the ball back down and look for a different receiver. So maybe the secondary can make a play or two -- though this in no way absolves them from their multiple breakdowns. But if there's hope for the season, it lies in the current players improving. And some of them are showing that improvement -- now they need consistency.

Also note that with all that went wrong, this was still a winnable game. Pittsburgh got a late first down by half-a-football, and the Patriots could have saved another minute on the clock if they'd challenged an incorrect call on a Rob Gronkowski touchdown. So all is not lost; at least not yet. But the NFL is a copy-cat league, and the Giants are sure to try the same plan when they come to town next week. Time to start working on some answers.

So where does that leave us? 5-2 isn't bad, but with the Jets and Bills playing well, it is getting crowded in the AFC East. The Giants have the defensive front to give the Patriots trouble; but bear in mind that New York barely (and I mean barely) beat the awful Miami Dolphins yesterday. So even at 5-2, the Giants might not pose the threat one would expect.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Buffalo Bills have only four shutouts against NFC opponents in franchise history. The "oddity" part is that all the shutouts have come when the date has doubles at the end of the year. They shut out an NFC team in 1977, 1988, 1999, and 2011. (Big... BIG props to anyone who can name the teams without looking -- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Looks like the Steelers are finally sick of Tom Brady kicking sand in their face."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Atlanta Falcons in 1977 (3-0), Green Bay Packers in 1988 (28-0), Philadelphia Eagles in 1999 (26-0), and Washington in 2011 (23-0).

New Look Steelers Could Finally Give Patriots Trouble

2011-10-29T09:14:00.000-04:00

At first glance, Patriots versus Steelers looks like an exercise in frustration for Pittsburgh. The games are often close, but since Pittsburgh beat the Patriots on Halloween 2004, they are 1-4 versus New England, the only win coming over the Matt Cassel-led team in 2008.

However, the Steelers are writing a new script this year, and the Patriots defense is in transition at just the wrong time. So past patterns might not have as much play this Sunday. Here are three reasons the match-up is intriguing.

1. Mismatch for Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace versus the Patriots secondary.

The Steelers haven’t really been a run-first team since 2005, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s second season. But their passing game has mostly been short to mid-range throws, with occassional long bombs on plays extended by Roethlisberger. Without a significant deep threat, the Patriots regularly put extra men near the line of scrimmage, making it tougher for the Steelers to run or pass.

However, this year Pittsburgh sports a real deep threat in wide receiver Mike Wallace. His yards per game are up about 33%, from 78.6 last year to 104.3 this season, and he scored the two longest touchdowns of his career (81 and 95 yards) in the first seven games. Wallace always averaged about 20 yards a catch, but his increased yardage and quick-strike touchdowns -- coupled with Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays -- have opposing teams defending the entire field for a change.

Additionally, the Patriots secondary remains a real problem. Inexperience at safety has caused communication breakdowns and easy completions and touchdowns. The team waived cornerback Leigh Bodden during the bye week, leaving scrappy Kyle Arrington and slumping Devin McCourty to cover against outside receivers. All of which means the Patriots will either double-team Wallace (and leave other receivers open) or take their chances with single coverage (and risk big plays).

2. Mismatch for New England: Tom Brady versus the Steelers defense.

This mismatch isn’t theoretical (like the first one); Patriots quarterback Tom Brady feasts on the Steelers defense. For years Pittsburgh has played sound fundamentals and didn’t change the defense much from week to week. They just played their system extremely well, and the results have been excellent.

Unfortunately for them, Brady exploits holes in their zone coverage, and he is outstanding at reading the blitz and completing passes before it gets to him. So playing the same defense against Brady doesn’t work. Need statistical proof... Brady’s QB rating the last four games against the Steelers are as follows: 130.5, 92.7, 125.2, and 117.4 -- gaudy numbers against a one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

The other trend working against Pittsburgh is that Brady threw three interceptions in one of those games, and zero in the other three games combined. The Steelers will need to win the turnover battle on Sunday, and that means confusing and hitting Tom Brady -- which they haven’t done lately.

3. Something has to give: Patriots post-bye offense versus Pittsburgh’s first quarter defense.

After a bye week, the Patriots offense used to be awful to begin the next game. In the first six years under Bill Belichick, they averaged less than a field goal (2.72 points) in the first quarter of games after a bye. Something needed to change, and it did; in the last five years they are much improved, averaging 9.13 points in the first quarter of post-bye games.

Then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who give up an average of just 3.42 points in the first quarter this year -- and a microscopic average of 1.67 points in the first quarter over the last six weeks. Clearly one of these trends has to give, and the team that continues its trend will have a leg up in going for the win.

Also note that the Patriots are very likely to be kicking off to start the game. They always defer if they win the toss, and if Pittsburgh wins, they are likely to want the ball first to keep the Patriots offense off the field. This factor plays in the Steelers’ favor as far as the first-quarter scoring trend goes.

Ochocinco Just Doesn't Matter

2011-10-26T17:40:00.004-04:00

Last week was the bye in New England, and that gave Patriots fans and media a chance to digest the season so far, spotting trends and areas of both encouragement and concern. One name that came up repeatedly in articles and over the airwaves was Chad Ochocinco. Some people advised more patience with the wide receiver and others called for him to be benched or cut outright.

What all the talk missed is that there simply isn’t any reason to bother talking about Ochocinco. For all of the buzz surrounding his arrival this summer, not only has he not panned out, there is little reason to think he will. And in retrospect there is almost no reason to think he could have made much of a difference in the first place.

Here are five reasons Ochocinco isn’t worth your time and energy.

Reason #1: He averages a pathetic 1.5 catches for 15 yards a game. In other words, he represents less than five per cent of the passing offense on a team that averages 26.7 completions for 350.5 yards a game.

Three points that put Ochocinco’s 2011 totals -- 9 catches for 136 yards -- in perspective: First, Ochocinco himself topped those numbers 11 times in single games prior to joining the Patriots. Second, Wes Welker had more yards in three games already this season. And on the 2011 Patriots, Ochocinco joins three running backs and two part-time receivers as the only players on the entire team with fewer than ten catches for the year.

Reason #2: Even with a non-functional/dysfunctional Ochocinco, New England is among the league leaders in every passing category. Tom Brady and company lead the league with 350.5 passing yards a game, and are second in yards per pass (9.1) and passer rating (104.8). And overall the offense leads the NFL with 27 first downs a game, has three 90+ yard touchdown drives, and is fourth in points per game with 30.8.

Contributions from Ochocinco might help, but the team is thriving without him.

Reason #3: Under the best of possible circumstances, Ochocinco would only have been only a modest improvement over Deion Branch. The local media and many fans went overboard when Ochocinco was brought in, hailing the trade as another genius move by head coach Bill Belichick. But the reality is that Ochocinco is nowhere near the deep threat he was a few years ago. And even if he picked up the offense immediately, he would have been only a marginal improvement over Deion Branch.

At this point in Ochocinco’s career, he is a precise route-runner with the strength and grit to out-muscle corners at the line of scrimmage and compete for the ball on close plays. In other words, he is a slightly taller, slightly stronger, much better tweeting version of Branch. All Ochocinco lacks is knowledge of the playbook and the trust of Tom Brady. And at this point it looks like he will lack those things for his entire, one-year Patriots career.

Reason #4: The Cold, Hard Football Facts have shown that you don’t need a big-name wide receiver to win in the NFL. Their comparison of big-name receivers to shiny hood ornaments (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/Archive_3360_Moss:_another_shiny_hood_ornament_wide_receiver.html) that look good but don’t add much to winning has been borne out time and again.

Big-name receivers like Ochocinco usually demand more throws their way, even if it’s only the subtle psychological pressure to use their talents as much as possible. They also often complain in the press (though Ochocinco hasn’t yet), can be divisive in the locker room, and unfortunately, can be neutralized in the biggest games by playoff-caliber defenses that focus on taking them away.

It doesn’t necessarily hurt to have a great receiver (that Jerry Rice guy did okay in the post-season). But there are about 50 pieces of the championship puzzle more important than the big-name receiver. And Patriots fans should know that better than most -- all three of their Super Bowl victories came without one.

Reason #5: His $6 million salary is already spent, so there’s no use crying about it. Some have argued that since the Patriots spent a lot of money on Ochocinco they have to get something out of him. That is nonsense.

Almost every year there is virtual All Star team of big money free agents who never pan out with their new team. Between injuries, the inability to learn new systems, position changes, lack of motivation after signing big contracts, locker room friction, and coaching conflicts, there are myriad reasons why free agents sometimes just don’t work out.

Only a foolish team wastes valuable playing time and coaching energy on players just because the team paid them a lot of money. How much money the Patriots paid Ochocinco is irrelevant to the current situation -- the $6 million is now guaranteed so there’s no point in worrying about it.

If the Patriots think Ochocinco is making progress (and there is evidence he is), then they should continue to work with him. But how much money he makes should have no bearing on playing time or how often they target him in the passing game.

So there you have it, five good reasons you don’t need to worry about Chad Ochocinco. Maybe one of these weeks he will have a breakout game and start tweeting up interest again. But until then, concentrate your energy on the improved Patriots defense and running game, or bemoan the problems at safety or the lack of depth on the offensive line. But Ochocinco shouldn’t occupy much of your time.

Patriots Edge Cowboys 20-16 On Late Brady TD

2011-10-17T07:12:00.000-04:00

The Dallas Cowboys seem determined not to be a factor in the AFC East race. They blew late leads to both the Patriots and Jets, as if they didn't want anyone mad at them for picking favorites. Perhaps they'll complete the superfecta and throw away games to the Bills and Dolphins in November... after all, it would only be fair at this point.

The Patriots proved they are four points less sucky than the Cowboys, hanging on for a 20-16 victory. The win catapulted 5-1 New England into first place in the AFC East all by their lonesome, as the Buffalo Bills felll to 4-2. The Jets and Dolphins play on Monday Night, with a loss by the Jets being most desirable, since it would put them three full games behind the Patriots in the division. Also, the Patriots lead the entire AFC in winning percentage, and trail only undefeated Green Bay in the NFL.

Yesterday's contest was sloppy, sloppy, sloppy, and that dulled the excitement you'd usually have in a game this close. The Cowboys came out of their bye week with an interception and a fumble in the first quarter. Not to be outdone, the Patriots went into their bye week the same way, with another tipped-ball INT by Tom Brady and a Matthew Slater fumble on a kickoff return (both in the first quarter). All told there were 6 turnovers, 5 sacks, 15 accepted penalties and 5 declined ones, maybe 12-15 dropped passes, and about 100 missed tackles. Looks like both coaches have a lot to work on this week.

The defense remains a puzzle for at least one more week. It is difficult to tell if they are doing better or if the one-dimensional Jets and self-inflicted-wound Cowboys made them look better. Dallas only got 3.2 yards a rush for the game, an excellent number for the defense. But the quick-misdirection runs gave them fits in the second half. The Patriots also held the Cowboys to 33% on third down and in the red zone, and those numbers are encouraging. However, there are still gaping holes in their zone coverage, as evidenced by the 7 passes of 15-yards or more. And when the Patriots blitzed to get more pressure, it had very bad results. But on the other hand, they got another goal-line defensive stop to hold the Cowboys to a field goal in the fourth quarter, and then got a three-and-out when they had to get the ball back for the offense to win the game.

The defensive line provided a bit more pass rush on its own yesterday, led by Andre Carter (2 sacks, 2 QB hits, 5 tackles). 2011 Stalwarts Vince Wilfork (2 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended) and Kyle Love continue to do the heavy lifting inside, although Albert Haynesworth played more and better, with a hit on Romo that caused an important incompletion late in the game. And Gerard Warren came off the street to recover a fumble and get a few tackles. With Mike Wright out for the season, they need contributions from both Haynesworth and Warren, as well as Shaun Ellis, who has been hot-and-cold so far.

At linebacker, Gary Guyton starred on the stat sheet, with ten total tackles. However, my eyes tell me that recent whipping boy Brandon Spikes stepped it up, blowing up plays in the backfield and notching eight tackles of his own. Granted, they joined the team in missing their share of tackles. But between the two of them, they held down the medium zones in pass coverage so at least not much got behind them. However, they were also the pair most victimized by the mis-direction runs. No question the team misses Jerod Mayo, who is a tackling machine and brought both smarts and attitude to the field. No timetable yet on his return; but he will almost certainly be back this year.

The secondary looked awful in the medium-to-deep zone, doing the classic tackle-after-the-catch thing. Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden do not excel in zone coverage, and the team should play more press/man to take advantage of their skills. Patrick Chung was all over the field, making ten tackles in run and pass support, and Kyle Arrington wasn't far behind (nine tackles, and an interception). James Ihedigbo is making a case as the second greatest safety to play for the UMass Minutemen (check's in the mail, right JD?) -- though more seriously he seems to understand the defense pretty well and has improved each game.

Dallas' defensive game plan clearly centered on stopping receivers Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, and it only sort of worked. Welker had 6 catches for 45 yards and 1 touchdown, Gronkowski caught everything thrown his way -- 7 catches on 7 attempts, for 74 yards. But that left Aaron Hernandez open for 14 targets, of which he caught 8 passes for 68 yards and the game-winning touchdown. However, Hernandez also had a crucial fumble, and should have caught at least two more of those passes. He's still coming back from surgery, and he will improve in the coming weeks.

Quarterback Tom Brady didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 27 of 41 passing for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns and (most telling on the day) two interceptions, the second of which was just a terrible decision on his part. Not great numbers, and there are some disturbing signs around the quarterback: his second interception should have been thrown away instead, he has too many tipped-ball interceptions this season, and he completed passes to only six different receivers on Sunday. He once prided himself on throwing the ball away instead of risking turnovers, and he regularly completed passes to ten (or more) different receivers a week. Brady has the bye week to correct these bad habits, and he needs to do so if the Patriots expect to make the playoffs and make any noise once they are there.

One factor in Brady's mediocre play was the same level of play from the offensive line. They are getting better at run blocking, but they should remember that protecting the quarterback is more important to their long-term prospects than getting four yards a carry on the ground. They seemed confused by some of Dallas' stunts and games up front. And even though Dallas has some excellent defensive linemen, Brady was hit eight times and sacked thrice -- probably too much for his long-term health.

The running game was productive if not as dominating as it was the last two weeks. BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to shoulder the load... shouldering it right into defenders and driving them backwards most of the time, to the tune of 58 yards and a 4.1 yard average. Oh, and if you think Danny Woodhead hasn't been doing much in the running game, you are right. Four weeks ago, he carried 6 times for 21 yards; since then he has just 6 rushes for 21 yards in three games. Although he did have a nice catch-and-run in the passing game this week.

Part of the unevenness of the run could be attributed to excellent play-calling by Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. But part of it was also bad play-calling by Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (or perhaps Brady in the two-minute offense). Too often the Patriots followed decent gains with losses that turned second-and-short into third-and-long.

Once it was third-and-long, the drive was often over, as Ryan would dial up an effective blitz and end the play early. O'Brien needs to keep an eye on when to call run, pass, or screen pass -- he has done well against most teams, but in the playoffs the defensive play-calling will put him to the test, just as it has the past two years (tests he has failed both times).

The least special special teams play was Matt Slater's fumble in the first quarter. It didn't cost them any points, as the Cowboys kindly fumbled it back five plays later. But Slater, a beast in kickoff coverage, should know that special teams fumbles are especially devastating, as they often come after the other team scores. It was no surprise that Stevan Ridley replaced Slater in kick returns for the rest of the game.

So where does that leave us? At 5-1 and with a bye week, the Patriots have plenty of work to do. They need to distribute the ball more in the passing game, integrate Stevan Ridley in the running game, cure Tom Brady of his interception bug, get the pass rush on track, get Jerod Mayo healthy, and convert secondary to play press coverage instead of zone. Sounds like a busy week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Nine words I never thought I would write -- Kyle Arrington leads the entire league with four interceptions.

Trivia Question: Only one NFL team has scored more points than they've allowed this season and still sports a losing record -- name the team (answer below).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'll start worrying about winning ugly when the NFL starts giving extra victories for pretty ones."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Believe it or not, the 1-4 Minnesota Vikings have scored 5 more points than they've allowed.

Patriots Overwhelm Jets 30-21

2011-10-10T01:35:00.003-04:00

In a game dubbed "a battle between hall of fame coaches," the one going the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Bill Belichick) beat the one going to the Blowhard Hall of Fame (Rex Ryan). The Patriots 30-21 win keeps pace with the surprising Buffalo Bills and opens a two-game lead over the Jets in the division. The Cowboys are in town next week, and I hope to be well enough to attend that tilt.

(Note: I was scheduled to be at the game yesterday, but I was a late scratch with a long-lasting flu that left me too weak to properly intimidate the visitors from NY. Fortunately, Al the Foxboro Weather God found a last-minute replacement, who filled in admirably according to all reports, and had a great time to boot! In the Patriots tradition of "Next man up!" -- thank you Steve, for pitching in for the team.)

As for the game, the Drive Chart tells you all you really need to know. The Jets scored on 3 of 11 possessions, while the Patriots scored on 6 of 11. And the Jets had seven 3-and-out possessions, while the Patriots had just one. Aside from that, there weren't a lot of game-changers: both teams had one big play (73-yard pass by the Pats, 88-yard kick return by the Jets), they combined to lose zero fumbles, and the lone interception (by the Jets) simply kept the score close.

So without the usual game-changers, there wasn't really domination, just a long, slow grind-down of the Jets defense by the Patriots offense. New England outperformed New York in first downs (26 to 14), third-down efficiency (50% to 27%), yards per pass attempt (7.9 to 5.6), total yards (446 to 255), surprisingly rushing yards (152 to 97), and time of possession (33:55 to 26:05).

The Patriots defense slowed the running game long enough to get the lead, and when the Jets had to make key third-down conversions through the air, one of two things usually happened: either the Jets dropped the ball or the Patriots secondary jumped the short route and forced quarterback Mark Sanchez to throw it away. That is how you get off the field on third-down; though the Patriots can't take all the credit, Jets receivers should take a bow for dropping easy passes that might have extended drives.

The Jets running attack was up-and-down, which is what caused most of their three-and-outs. The largest portion of blame for the big gains lies at the feet of the Patriots linebackers, who were short their best run-stopper (Jerod Mayo) and had multiple breakdowns and missed gaps. The press keeps touting Brandon Spikes for his recent play, but it just doesn't show up on the field. He and Gary Guyton made about 10 of their 15 tackles 7 - 10 yards downfield, and both blitzed into bad spots and missed tackles near the line that could have helped. Oh, and please call the local authorities if you see Jermaine Cunningham, because he is Mr. Invisible out there.

The defensive line did what it could; but mostly they were double-teamed or run away from, so it was the linebackers' responsibility to make tackles. Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork continue to be their most consistent linemen, and they were helped by the return of Albert Haynesworth, who didn't play a lot but was effective when he did. The quarterback pressure still comes from the outside; Mark Anderson got to Sanchez twice, sharing one sack with Rob Ninkovich. Andre Carter hasn't found his pre-season form, but he's better against the run that he showed in the pre-season, which helped against a run-first team like the Jets.

If you listen to the press, you will hear them howl about the secondary again this week. But the fact is the cornerbacks played better in this game. Leigh Bodden actually got in front of a pass and knocked it away, and for the most part they did a great job cutting off routes on third down. Kyle Arrington is still scary in one-on-one coverage, and the safeties have to improve if the Pats expect to beat teams with better quarterbacks. But they are improving; it's just be a matter of how quickly they progress.

For one week, the offense wasn't all about the quarterback -- finally a running back can take a bow: step up to the podium, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The veteran running back ran left, right, up the middle, out of the shotgun formation, got his longest run on a direct-snap, and totaled 136 yards on 27 carries with 2 touchdowns. The week after I said Stevan Ridley should be starting, BJGE showed some burst, great balance after the initial hit, and lots of power. He and the offensive line wore down the Jets defense, to the point where they couldn't stop the run even when they knew it was coming.

On the Patriots offensive line, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, and tight end Rob Gronkowski got huge push off the line, putting the Jets defense on their heels and forcing more run-blitzes to counter the effective running game. Light and Gronkowski pancaked at least four or five defenders each, and Brian Waters pulled around from right guard to wham-block in the middle.

The pass protection was another matter. Tom Brady was sacked four times and hit five others, with pressure mostly coming from edge blitzes. Several mis-communications let Jets bltizters run free to the quarterback, and that has to be addressed before the rematch in New York. Tom Brady handled it well; his 24 of 33, 321 yards and 1 touchdown seem pedestrian these days, but with the pressure he was under he did well not to have more than the 1 interception (an INT that was completely Aaron Hernandez' fault).

The receiving corps got a boost from the return of Hernandez, who had 5 catches for 56 yards and helped stretch the Jets defense. One other thing that stretched the defense was Wes Welker's 73-yard catch and run past a cheating safety -- Welker ended the day with 5 catches for 124 yards. Deion Branch was the main target on the day, notching 7 grabs for 74 yards and a touchdown. And both Chad Ochocinco and Gronkowski added important third-down catches on drives at the end of the half and the game, respectively.

Special teams were okay but not great. Stephen Gostkowski went 3-3 on field goals, and he and punter Zoltan Mesko mostly kept the Jets pinned back in their own territory. And Tracy White and Matthew Slater seem deadlocked in a fight to be the best special teams tackler. However, the 88-yard kickoff return led directly to a touchdown, and that could have made it a game if they weren't careful. And without regular kick returner Julian Edelman, substitute Ridley needs to down the ball when it's 8 yards in the end zone.

(Note to the NFL, the Jets appear to be running an illegal wedge on their kickoff returns, with three or four players side-by-side. Might want to check into that.)

The coaches continue to show flexibility and a desire to protect Tom Brady from continuous blitzing. The defensive scheme was great -- slow down the run and then jam short routes on third-down. And the players worked it to near perfection, giving up just two long drives and a bunch of three-and-outs.

So where does that leave us? 4-1 and looking at a game against Rex Ryan's brother, Rob (defensive coordinator of the Cowboys), with the Cowboys coming off a bye week. In fact, as I wrote in the Season Preview, the last time Rob Ryan had an extra week to plan for the Patriots, the result was a stunning loss in Cleveland last year. So don't think this is a gimme. Best hope that Tony Romo is his usual careless self, and that he turns the ball over a few times.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: BenJarvus Green-Ellis now has 427 career touches and zero fumbles.

Bonus Statistical Oddity (courtesy of CBS): Brady's interception was the first home-game red zone interception of his NFL career.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "BenJarvus looked like Corey Dillon out there; all he needs is a better stiff-arm and shorter hair."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-1!

Patriots Roll Over Raiders, 31-19

2011-10-03T02:02:00.006-04:00

Your Patriots bounced back in fine style, rolling over the Oakland Raiders 31-19. The win gives the Patriots a share of the lead in the AFC East, as the Buffalo Bills lost on a last-second field goal -- both teams are 3-1 for the year. The same can't be said for the Jets, who lost to Baltimore to fall to 2-2, but they are still 2 games ahead of the woeful 0-4 Dolphins.

The Patriots appeared to learn their lesson from the Bills loss last weekend, using the pass to get the lead and then the run to keep it and use up some clock. With all the passing in Buffalo, the teams combined for 25 possessions and 65 points; with the running this week it was 20 possessions and 50 points. And much more important was the running game slowed down the opposing pass rush -- and Tom Brady dropped his interception total from 4 against Buffalo to 0 against Oakland.

The Pats running attack consisted of two very different backs. Veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the load early, with 8 rushes in each half and 75 yards and 1 touchdown. He isn't often referred to as shifty or a guy with outstanding moves, but he cut well and made very good yardage between the tackles. He also blocked well in pass protection and downfield (knocked a linebacker on his ass to spring Wes Welker on a 24-yard catch and run).

Rookie Stevan Ridley played more because Danny Woodhead got dinged in the game, and he made the most of his opportunity: 10 rushes for 97 yards and 1 touchdown. Ridley showed excellent burst and cutting ability, and he never runs out of control, always able to make another cut if a lane opens up. I've been touting Ridley since the pre-season, and not only is he their most dynamic back, he still hasn't missed a pass-blocking assignment, and was even targeted three times in the passing game. And his 8.2 yards per carry is second in the NFL among running backs with at least 10 carries (big ups to you if you can name the league leader, answer below.)

The Patriots offensive line did a great job run blocking, using zone schemes and mixing in tight end whams to open creases. And the timing was impeccable, with backs hitting the hole just as it opened and sometimes getting through just before it closed. Rookie Nate Solder did a great job in the running game and a credible job in pass protection. Oft-maligned Matt Light was outstanding against the edge rush (only beaten once), and props to Logan Mankins -- a man among boys sometimes, but always effective and a hitter. Also, the fact that we never mention bad snaps or crushing pressure up the middle means Dan Connolly is doing the job in place of longtime center Dan Koppen (out for the year, lest we forget).

The protection and running game combined to make the passing attack even more dangerous. Wes Welker was the star again: 9 catches for 158 yards and 1 touchdown. Other than that it was few catches spread around; 2 grabs for Chad Ochocinco and a single catch each for five other receivers. Rob Gronkowski is getting much tighter coverage with Aaron Hernandez out, and Deion Branch doesn't seem to have the ability to get open against press coverage. Hernandez is supposed to be back soon, which should open things up for the rest of the crew; we shall see.

Brady was not spectacular; but who cares? 16 of 30 for 226 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He did not put the ball in harm's way and mixed in the run to keep himself clean (just 1 sack for 0 yards). And played tough yesterday -- showing great poise even when he was hit illegally by old teammate Richard Seymour and not losing his cool when another Raiders lineman whacked him in the head, with no penalty flag. Even though he was sacked just once, the Raiders hit him four times; but he never got mad... he just got even.

On defense, it was never about stopping the quarterback or the passing game, it was all about stopping the run. The Patriots used a 5-2-4 alignment to give themselves more bodies at the line and slow down Raiders running back Darren McFadden, who leads the league in rushing yards. And they were pretty effective, holding McFadden to one long gain (41 yards) and 13 carries for 31 yards other than that. He never got fully untracked, although it is scary to see him with room to run.

Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love stuffed the inside run, leaving it to fellow defensive linemen Andre Carter and Shaun Ellis to clean things up. Love is a big surprise, perhaps playing the best of all the D-linemen; though Carter does well getting after the passer when he's unleashed and Ellis can play pass or run. Still waiting for Albert Haynesworth to return to the rotation, something that will be even more important with Myron Pryor out for the year and Mike Wright recovering from a concussion.

The linebackers are still the biggest concern, and that's saying something given all the problems in the secondary. Jerod Mayo is easily their best LB, and he got injured yesterday (no timetable for a return). Rob Ninkovich doesn't get beaten often (though the tight ends got him twice yesterday), but he rarely makes a big play. And Brandon Spikes still plays like he thinks he's better than he really is. His screw up turned what should have been a 5-yard gain into a 41-yard scamper for McFadden, and he misses three-times as many plays as he makes. It's saying something when Dane Fletcher is your second-best linebacker, and no one even knows what number he wears!

The return of Patrick Chung helped the secondary, because now only half the safeties were problematic, and Sergio Brown held up his end as the weak link. We shouldn't expect a lot from a second-year safety who barely got on the field last year; but please just take a decent angle and break up a pass once in a while. Brown blew it on a 58-yard pass very late in the game, and thankfully it didn't hurt the outcome. But it was perfectly set up for him to break up the play or even go for an interception, and instead it looked like he wanted to avoid contact. Not exactly what you're looking for from the safety position.

Leigh Bodden was out of the game, and that didn't turn out to be a bad thing. He must have been injured early this year, because he's been terrible, and it makes sense for him to get healthy. The backups didn't do any worse than he did, so he should let his groin pull heal up before attempting to play again. Devin McCourty didn't get beaten as badly as he has lately; but it's clear he thrives in man-on-man press coverage. His lack of aggression in a zone kills him, and even though it's riskier to play man-to-man, McCourty needs that to play well.

Special Interception Section. Patrick Chung should write a nice "thank you" note to Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell. Campbell threw one right into Chung's hands in the Patriots end zone, killing a drive and giving Chung the biggest gift pick he'll ever get. And some guy named Vince Wilfork got another one yesterday, wrapping his arms around a throw right to him at the line of scrimmage. That's two INTs in three games for Vince, and he leads the team with 47 interception return yards.

The coaching was much better against the Raiders. After getting the early lead, the Patriots mixed in more running plays to slow down the pass rush, run some clock, and keep the defense honest. The decision to utilize Ridley paid off. And even when the game was close, it was smart to stack the line against McFadden and dare Campbell to beat you. He's now 0-2 against the Patriots, and with good reason -- he has six turnovers in those two games.

So where does that leave us? 3-1 is nice and all, but the games don't get any easier. Next week the division rival New York Jets will be in town, fresh off a 34-17 loss to the Ravens and no doubt hungry to get back in the division race. The Jets will be on their third consecutive road game, and will have a shortish week to prepare (they played Sunday night). And they might be emotionally spent, given Rex Ryan's connection with the Baltimore Ravens. But don't count on any letdown by New York -- the Patriots will have to protect the ball and play better on defense if they expect to win.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Kyle Arrington is tied for the league lead in interceptions and Vince Wilfork is tied for fifth -- you tell me which is odder!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I must have mis-read something -- weren't the Raiders going to run it down our throats?"

Keep the faith,

PS. 3-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
New Orleans running back Darren Sproles leads NFL running backs with 8.9 yards per carry (minimum 10 carries).

Bills Comeback, Beat Patriots 34-31

2011-09-26T01:24:00.001-04:00

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words:

That's right folks, the Buffalo Bills snapped their 15-game losing streak against the Patriots and vaulted the field to stand atop the entire AFC at 3-0. And I say good for them; they earned it, coming back from a 21-point deficit with timely turnovers and a defense that made the Pats earn every yard in the second half.

The 34-31 Patriots loss leaves them at 2-1, one game back in the AFC East and tied with rival New York for second place. Next week brings a cross-country trip for a tough test against the Raiders in Oakland -- a team that handed the Jets their first loss yesterday, so it will not be an easy game.

As for the train-wreck yesterday, the blame game begins with quarterback Tom Brady. His 4 interceptions outweighed the gaudy 67% completions and 4 touchdowns. It was Brady's first four-interception game in five years, and only the fourth of his career. Not all of Sunday's INTs were his fault, and one was just bad luck, but two were bad passes, and those two are on Brady. And all four of them were game- or momentum-changers.

The first came just before the half, with the Patriots leading 21-7 and driving for more. But Brady's sideline throw to Danny Woodhead was behind him and low, and when Woodhead popped it up corner Bryan Scott made a great play to pick it. The Bills drove the length of the field and nailed a field goal to cut the lead to 11 at the half.

The Bills got the ball first in the second half, but the Patriots defense held them to a three-and-out and the Pats had the ball in great field position at their own 43 yard line. However, on the first play, Chad Ochocinco ran a lazy route and was undercut by Leodis McKelvin for the second pick. Buffalo drove for a touchdown and the lead was down to 4 points.

A few drives later, the Patriots were closing in on a game-clinching score (would have made it a 14 point game) when Brady threw to a covered Rob Gronkowski and it was picked again. Brady had no business throwing this one, it was second-and-two, so a throw-away or dump off was the correct play with the primary receiver covered. Two plays (and two huge penalties) later the Bill scored a game-tying touchdown, knotting it at 24 with 10:36 left in the game.

Even with all that, the game was still winnable, until... on the next play from scrimmage, Brady's throw was tipped by a defensive lineman and run back for a touchdown -- 31-24 Bills. Not Brady's fault, more of a fluke. But now playing catch up, the Patriots took 7:00 to score a touchdown to tie the game again. However, with the game tied and only 3:30 left on the clock, the Bills ran it down and kicked a field goal to win as time expired.

There are your 350 words on what Brady did wrong. Here are a few for Chad Ochocinco. His lazy in-cut let up an interception, one that should only partially be blamed on Brady. And his drop of an easy -- and I mean really easy -- touchdown with 8:18 left in the game forced two fourth-down conversions and ate up almost 5:00 of additional time. Ochocinco ran the right route, he was in the correct position, and all he had to do was catch it. And if he made that catch, the Patriots would have had time to come back for a tying (or perhaps winning) score at the end. But his drop let Buffalo run out the clock.

And a little slice of blame for offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien:

Danny Woodhead should not run out of running formations, he is more effective out of the shotgun.
Every time Brady moves the running back from left-to-right or right-to-left, it's a pass play. If I figured that out, trust me, the opposing defenses know it, too.
Your wide receivers caught 3 passes for 33 yards (0 for 0 by Deion Branch); so I'd suggest giving Matthew Slater a try before you get your tight ends and Wes Welker killed.
A healthy 4.2 yards per rush yesterday, but only 26 running plays and 45 passing plays... ever hear of using up some clock once you have a lead?
Average yards per rush by your running backs this year: BenJarvus Green-Ellis = 3.6, Danny Woodhead = 4.3, Stevan Ridley = 5.9. I'm no math wiz, but Ridley should start, and you should ride him as far as he takes you. He appears to know the pass protections well enough, so why was he riding the pine most of the game?

And the tiniest slice of blame for a defense that forced three three-and-outs in the last 30 minutes. They just couldn't stop the Bills at the end of either half, which hurt a lot. But Kyle Arrington's two early interceptions set the Patriots up with the 21-0 lead. Add to that the Patriots offense turned the ball over on four of their last eight possessions, and this loss lands squarely on Brady and his mates.

Worst of the rest:

Devin McCourty isn't awful out there, but he needs to get in position to stop completions instead of making tackles.
Leigh Bodden has not regained his 2009 form. He looks like a statue in press coverage and a windmill in zone.
I didn't check the game film, but it appears the Patriots played with only one safety. Sergio Brown made a few plays, but Josh Barrett (#30) could have been in an Umpire's uniform for all the good he did you out there.
(Note on above point, why oh why did the Patriots release safety James Sanders? If they knew they might cut Brandon Meriweather, they should have kept Sanders around for depth.)
Brandon Spikes, stop standing around cheering your teammates and make a play.
The roughing the passer call on Kyle Love was BS.
Still not getting much pressure on the quarterback, but they have to straighten out the safety position before blitzing more.
Jermaine Cunningham, still lost 1+ year in -- could he be the Meriweather of linebackers?

The bright spots:

Four words... Wes Welker is amazing. 16 catches for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns (1 on fourth-and-goal). Thank you Miami for letting him go!
Defensive line played pretty well; most of Fred Jackson's yards came at the expense of the linebackers and safeties.
Andre Carter held up the edge well and blew up two plays before they got started.
Lack of offensive line depth didn't hurt any in this game: 0 sacks and only 4 quarterback hits on the day.
The aforementioned Ridley: 7 rushes for 6.3 yards a carry.

So where does that leave us? Well, 2-1 is worse than 3-0 but not exactly a disaster. The Patriots lost a game they should have won, and it doesn't get any easier from here -- Oakland and then the New York Jets. The best hope for this Sunday is the Patriots having some strange new defensive wrinkles for Oakland QB Jason Campbell. Last time he played New England he had 1 interception and 3 fumbles.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots top three tacklers were all cornerbacks (McCourty 11, Bodden 7, Arrington 6).

Statistical Marvel of the Week: Wes Welker accounted for 14 first downs in the game. You read that right, 14.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If they knew Meriweather was on the outs, they should have kept Sanders around. All the new defensive linemen won't do much good if they can't cover receivers."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-1!

Fixing Football: Fake Injuries Edition

2011-09-22T10:41:00.001-04:00

Fake injuries are in the news, but they are hardly new. Defenses used them to slow down the Colts last year, Kurt Warner’s “Greatest Show on Turf,” Jim Kelly and Buffalo’s K-Gun, the Run-and-Shoot of Mouse Davis, and the Bengals’ no-huddle under Sam Wyche. And that’s just a partial list of the last few decades... don’t think for a second that Otto Graham and Bart Starr never faced fakers.

Cleveland linebacker Scott Fujita admitted that teams sometimes pre-call a phony injury in the huddle. And if you need proof, Fujita’s 2010 teammate Blake Costanzo faked one to slow down the Patriots just last year (8:30 left in the fourth quarter, if you care to check). New York Giants’ safety Deon Grant might have put this issue back in the spotlight, but he hardly invented the idea.

No question this goes on, and it constitutes a clear abuse of rules put in place to protect players. The NFL responded the way it usually does, with a sternly worded memo, threatening to fine or suspend players engaged in the practice. That step is long overdue, and it might reduce the number of obvious fakers, but it does not go far enough -- not by a long shot.

If the league really wants to get serious about this issue, commissioner Roger Goodell has to take two more steps: and additional memo this year, and a rule change for next year.

The memo should read, in part:

The head coach of any team that is determined to fake injury in order to gain advantage in a game will be suspended without pay for one game. A second offense will result in a two-game suspension, and a third offense will result in suspension for the remainder of the season.

Players don’t fake injuries on their own, the orders come from coaches. And if head coaches know they risk suspension, they will think twice about having players to take a dive. Especially if they risk losing money and even more especially if they risk losing an entire season.

The second part of the fix will have to wait until 2012, because it requires a new on-field rule -- something Goodell should push for this off-season. The rule would simply be that when a timeout is called for a player injury, that player cannot reenter the game until the after the next change of possession. In future seasons, this will make coaches and players less apt to use fake injuries as an in-game strategy, because it could leave them short-handed as a drive progressed.

These changes will not eliminate faking from the game; and neither would have changed what happened last Monday night. But in combination with threatened player suspensions, they are the best steps to reduce phony injuries as much as possible. Player safety should always be of paramount concern, and neither suspending coaches nor removing injured players from the game for a series puts safety at risk.

The rule change would probably be embraced by the NFL’s Competition Committee. Over the last 30 years, they favored rules that led to more offense and scoring. And any rule that allowed offenses to dictate the pace of the game and matchups on the field would certainly help with that goal.

Unfortunately, Goodell will not get the green-light to fine or suspend head coaches if players fake injury. The commissioner still works for the owners, and owners will protect head coaches, especially if the coach is winning games. Owners simply won’t allow this to happen, and Goodell probably knows that.

However, Goodell should push on both fronts. The NFL’s record on player safety is light-years better than just 15 years ago. But phony injuries slow down the game and create an unfair disadvantage for teams that run hurry-up offenses. And having players abuse rules designed to protect them is unacceptable, so the commissioner should do everything in his power to eliminate as many faked injuries as possible.

Patriots Capitalize on Chargers Miscues, Win 35-21

2011-09-19T01:52:00.000-04:00

The Patriots took another game from the fumbling Chargers yesterday, winning 35-21 over Norv Turner's mistake-ridden and unprepared team. They capitalized on four San Diego turnovers to turn a close game into a comfortable win. (Trivia question: when was the last time San Diego had four turnovers against the Patriots? Answer below.) The victory helped the Patriots keep pace with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, all three tied at 2-0 atop the AFC East. And the division race will start to take shape with a showdown in Buffalo next week.

Tom Brady completed passes to five different receivers on the first drive, and didn't slow down much all afternoon. He ended the day 31 of 40 for 423 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 135.7 rating. He was sacked twice, once on a blown play by Rob Gronkowski and the other was a coverage sack. Other than that, the offensive line did a terrific job keeping him clean.

His favorite receiver was Deion Branch, who had 8 catches for 129 yards. Most importantly, his yards after the catch got first downs three or four times, and his two sideline grabs late in the second quarter allowed the Patriots to tack on three more points before the half. Wes Welker pitched in his usual workmanlike 7 for 81, and the seemingly unstoppable Aaron Hernandez notched 7 for 62, and 1 touchdown. Even Chad Ochocinco caught 2 for 45 yards, one a nice open field grab and the other a critical third-down conversion before the Hernandez touchdown. The receivers and tight ends also did a great job blocking downfield for each other and in the running game.

(One parenthetical note: the referees don't seem to call pass interference on plays against Patriots receivers as quickly as they call it against the Patriots defense. Rob Gronkowski was clearly interfered with on a crucial third-down early in the second half, but the refs let it go and the Patriots had to punt. But they had no problem throwing a flag when faced with a similar situation involving Antonio Gates. They were both clearly interference; so it would be nice to see equal treatment. End of rant.)

The running game retains its "afterthought" status, but as a unit they averaged 4.0 yards a carry. BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to be the workhorse, with 17 carries, 70 yards, and 1 nice touchdown run. The Patriots lined up rookie tackle Nate Solder as a tight end, and ran around end a lot, with some success. Danny Woodhead was less effective than usual out of the shotgun, and as noted by my friend Al (The Foxboro Weather God), he always uses the cut-block on bigger players, which limits what Brady can do when the other team brings bigger blitzers. Kevin Faulk possesses the size to take on those blitzers, but he is still weeks away from playing.

Overall the offensive line played well, giving Brady time to survey the field and mostly keeping him clean. Gronkowski counts as a linemen in run blocking, and he regularly pancakes guys five yards downfield. Newcomer Brian Waters fit right in from the start, picking up the offense quickly and doing a nice job in pass protection and screen passes. Matt Light had a double-block on Green-Ellis' touchdown, and Dan Connolly hasn't blown a snap since taking over for the injured Dan Koppen at center. So much change and such good results... that earns line coach Dante Scarnecchia his first shout-out of the year.

No shout-out for defensive backs coach Josh Boyer, though. The Patriots secondary gave up too many easy yards, especially after cornerback Ras-I Dowling went to the sideline with an injury. Leigh Bodden looked like he was directing traffic, not playing defense. And Devin McCourty got out-schemed, out-jumped, and out-smarted on too many plays for the second straight week. If not for safety Sergio Brown's first interception and decent tackling by Brown and Patrick Chung, the entire game would have been an unmitigated disaster for the secondary.

The Chargers also exposed a critical lack of depth in the Patriots linebacking corps. Jerod Mayo led the team in tackles, forced a fumble and made an absolutely critical stop on fourth-and-goal at the Patriots 1 yard-line. Rob Ninkovich, a spot starter at OLB, recovered that fumble and got at least some pressure on the quarterback. However, the rest of the group could have taken the day off. Dane Fletcher is making progress but still learning, and Brandon Spikes looked absolutely lost. Coverage in the underneath zones was terrible, the secondary had three of the top four tacklers on the team, and the run defense consisted of tackles at the line or by Mayo -- or long gains stopped by the secondary.

Tough to run a 4-3 defense when you only play 4 or 5 linebackers. So they better call up someone from the practice squad or start getting production out of Spikes or playing time out of Jermaine Cunningham. Otherwise they'll be force to a 5-2 defense before you know it.

The defensive line held up well, though they did not get much pressure. This is to be expected -- until the secondary shows it can handle man-coverage when they blitz, there won't be any extra pass rushers, and so not as much pressure as you might expect with all the talent up front. But for this game, the lack of pressure did not bite them. The rotation of players keeps them fresh, and clogged up the running game, forcing San Diego to pass (not that that bothered the Chargers).

Vince Wilfork had the defensive highlight of the game, intercepting a screen pass and getting enough return yards to allow the Patriots to score a field goal late in the second half. Wilfork made a great read and tipped the ball to himself, and he looked pretty nimble for a lineman. The entire line had only 4 tackles and assisted on 3 others, but they held the line against a very good Chargers offense, and they are working their way into shape so their best players can be on the field together in crucial game situations later in the season.

Special teams specialists Matthew Slater and Tracy White had three big tackles between them. They seem to feed off each other's energy, topping one another whenever possible and celebrating big hits like rookies. And after last week's uncharacteristic missed field goal, Stephen Gostkowski was a perfect 2-2 this week, so if there was a problem with the long snapping it appears to be straightened out.

The biggest worry on special teams is the health of punter Zoltan Mesko. He hurt his left leg when one of his own players was blocked into him after a punt out of the end zone. And reportedly because of the injury, the Patriots eschewed a punt from their own 50 yard line, instead going for it on fourth-and-four -- and failing. Mesko's average is low, but that's mostly because he's been kicking to a short field. The Patriots could survive if he was out for a while, but he's the holder on field goals, so his absence would be doubly felt.

The offensive coaches should take a bow for their well-designed and executed plan. Obviously an offense ranked third in the league is pretty potent, and offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien deserves credit for that. As mentioned, the secondary looks like the least prepared part of the team, though with all the new faces it is a work in progress.

So where does that leave us? 2-0 and tied for the lead in the AFC East is a good place to be. The Patriots head to Buffalo for a divisional showdown with the surprising Bills next Sunday, and if history serves, they should leave with a win. The Bills generally play the Patriots tougher in Foxboro than in Buffalo, but then they usually aren't leading the league in scoring offense, so this game might be a different story.

Play of the Game: With apologies to Wilfork, it was Mayo's stop on fourth-and-goal. A Chargers touchdown there would have put them in the lead, and instead the Patriots drove it 99 yards and built a 10-point advantage that they never relinquished.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots scored on 99-yard touchdown drive for the second week in a row. I don't have the resources to find out the last time that happened in consecutive weeks; but I'm sure it's an oddity, because I can't remember even one 99-yard touchdown drive in the last decade.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The 2011 Patriots are on place for 8 turnovers for the year... that would break the record for fewest turnovers in a 16-game season (10), set by the 2010 Patriots.

Double-bonus Statistical Oddity: There are four undefeated teams in the AFC right now, and three of them are in the AFC East.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Miami's offense isn't good and the Chargers always self-destruct early in the season. Let's see how the Patriots handle a real juggernaut... the always tough Buffalo Bills :)"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: of course it was the last time they played -- the Patriots got four turnovers from the Chargers in a 23-20 victory last year.

Brady Dominates, Patriots Prevail 38-24

2011-09-13T01:39:00.000-04:00

Not bad for week #1, eh? In a dazzling aerial display for the ages, quarterbacks Tom Brady and Chad Henne combined for an NFL record 906 yards, Brady tossed a 99-yard touchdown to Wes Welker, and the exhausted defenses can finally rest after the Patriots notched a 38-24 victory over the Dolphins. The win locked the Patriots in an early-season three-way tie with the Jets and Bills for first place in the AFC East, and they have a short week to prepare for a Sunday tilt with the San Diego Chargers.

Brady completed 32 of 48 passes (66.7%) for 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 121.6 quarterback rating. He was in clear command the entire game, running the no huddle to stop the Dolphins from substituting and wearing them down with pinpoint passes that kept drives alive and the defense stuck on the field. Even his first interception in eleven regular-season games was a fluke -- a batted ball grabbed by a defensive lineman. Didn't look like much rust got on Brady during the lockout.

Brady's favorite receivers were tight ends Aaron Hernandez (7 catches for 103 yards and 1 touchdown), Rob Gronkowski (6-86, 1 touchdown), and slot receiver Welker (8-160, 2 touchdowns). Hernandez made tough catches along the sideline and in the end zone, while Gronkowski did most of his damage in the deep middle. Welker was his usual self, catches underneath on slants and curls. But he saved his best for last, a 99-yard catch and run to tie the NFL record for longest play from scrimmage.

The first time you heard Chad Ochocinco's name was for a dumb penalty that negated a 41-yard Gronkowski catch; though Ocho did get his first catch in limited playing time. Deion Branch grabbed 7 catches for 93 yards, and Brady targeted Matthew Slater twice on deep balls (hitting him once for 46 yards), so it appears the Patriots think he's their deep threat... along with the tight ends.

Running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead each averaged 4.9 yards a carry, and ran for a total of 103 yards -- no easy thing when there is so much passing. Woodhead's shifty style gave the Dolphins problems when the Pats ran from the shotgun, and he was especially good in blitz pickup, knocking heads with guys almost twice his size and holding his own. Green-Ellis showed unusual quickness in making the first Miami defenders miss, and ran over two guys for an early touchdown.

The offensive line was mostly up but some down. Rookie Nate Solder started at right tackle, and whiffed on a few running plays but mostly did a great job against Miami's Cameron Wake in pass protection. Newcomer Brian Waters played after just a week of practice and mostly looked like a seasoned veteran. And Matt Light finally, *finally* controlled pass rushing specialist Jason Taylor. Who knew all he needed was for Taylor to get old.

One injury of note on the offensive line; center Dan Koppen left in the second quarter, with what looked like a nasty turned ankle. Props to Dan Connolly for stepping in and not missing a beat. Connolly's shotgun snaps were a little bit high, and the Dolphins got a bit more pressure up the middle with Connolly in there, but overall a very good performance under difficult circumstances.

The defensive line fought a war of attrition against the heat, and they won by rotating players to keep them rested. And the rotation itself was interesting, with the coaches always making sure they had two of their four best linemen (Vince Wilfork, Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, and Andre Carter) on the field at all times. Believe it or not, it worked out pretty much like most people thought, making it very difficult to run the ball (13 carries for 39 yards by the Miami running backs) and pushing the pocket back toward the quarterback.

What didn't work out as expected is that the heat took a toll on the pass rush. But still, the Patriots D-line rotation gave them an edge, and they got more pressure on the Dolphins quarterback than Miami ever got on Tom Brady. It will be interesting to see if they stick with the rotation plan or go with their best linemen when they play better opponents.

The linebackers are what we thought they were... Jerod Mayo and a bunch of nondescript guys. Mayo himself had only five tackles and didn't have any impact plays. Rob Ninkovich played OLB and Gary Guyton started inside -- neither did much of anything except make a tackle or two after the catch. And Dane Fletcher did better than you thought he would, but admit it, you didn't expect much from him.

Given the lack of impact by the linebackers, that left most of the tackles in the hands of the secondary. Fortunately, those are pretty sure hands. Devin McCourty didn't exactly continue his shutdown ways from the end of last season. But he led the team in tackles with eleven (two for a loss), defended two passes (including a touchdown-saver on Brandon Marshall), and made Miami's receivers work for every catch and inch of turf after the catch. Not as great as the end of last year, but pretty good.

Leigh Bodden showed no ill effects of his 2010 shoulder injury, defending a pass and slamming several runners before they got around the corner. And he made a crucial stop at the half-yard line, on a drive that ended with no points for Miami, despite being so close.

Rookie Ras-I Dowling competed hard on every play, coming away with a decent game and my respect. Remember, McCourty started his rookie year the same way, okay at first, followed by good, very good, and then excellent. If these three can stay healthy, they will be a formidable group by mid-season. Oh... and some guy named Kyle Arrington lined up at corner, linebacker, and defensive lineman. We all know Bill Belichick likes versatility, but isn't that going a bit far?

The only worry in the secondary is the safety rotation. Patrick Chung make nine bone-crushing tackles, sacked the quarterback once, and defended a down field pass. In reality, he was the second-best linebacker for the Patriots, though he played safety. But his partner in the backfield, Josh Barrett, well he did not impress. He got fooled on several pass plays, including a touchdown, and the hope must be that he and the other young players will improve steadily during the season. Otherwise, Arrington will be at safety before it's all said and done.

The kicking game was excellent except for one play. Zoltan Mesko's average wasn't good, but he kicked to a short field most of the time, and placed one inside the five yard-line to change field position. And Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs were good enough; mostly deep in the end zone, though not through the end zone like in the presason.

The problem was the missed field goal at the end of the half. It was a simple 48 yarder, but it was never even close, going wide right from the start, and keeping it a one-score game at the half. Everything looked okay, but I have to point out that it was the first field-goal snap of Danny Aiken's Patriots career. And given the "three-man operation" that Belichick always talks about, this is cause for slight concern.

The coaching plan was very good. Attacking the Miami defense with the no-huddle, thus exposing their lack of depth by running their best players ragged, was an inspired idea. Don't be surprised to see more teams do that if they think they have a depth advantage. And the offensive play-calling was spot on -- even passes that fell incomplete were mostly toward receivers who were open.

So where does that leave us? 1-0 is better than 0-1, and it puts the Patriots in a three-way tie for first place at this point. Monday night games always mean short preparation weeks for the next game, which is against San Diego. However, the Chargers have several key injuries, and they won a game already, which is about their quota for the month of September.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: 86 years they've been playing NFL football, and 906 combined passing yards is the highest total ever. No one will find a stat more unusual than that.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Henne piled up numbers against a prevent defense... so remind me again, why do teams play that anymore."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

Patriots 2011 The Schedule: Where Are The Losses?

2011-09-12T07:24:00.005-04:00

So here goes another fearless attempt to predict the Patriots record, including my best try at predicting each game as a win or loss. As always, the season is broken up into four, four-game quarters.

First Quarter:

The season starts with a bang, a prime-time game against the Dolphins in Miami on Monday night. The first game can be tough to figure out, because teams show so little in the preseason. But Miami quarterback Chad Henne has just one decent game against the Patriots, and in the battle of surprise innovations from the off-season, Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, and Andre Carter trump Reggie Bush. Give the game to the Pats.

They follow with the Chargers at home on a short week. Normally a very tough thing, especially against a talented offense like the San Diego. But the Patriots talent upgrade on the defensive line and at cornerback should be enough to slow down the passing attack of Phillip Rivers. Besides, Norv Turner might be the least prepared coach when the season starts, so the Patriots should win, but a close one.

Thankfully the Bills game is in Buffalo, because the Patriots just feast on the defense there. The Bills last beat the Patriots in 2003, here are the scores from Buffalo since then: 31-17, 35-7, 28-6, 56-10, 13-0, 17-10, 34-3. Buffalo actually plays the Patriots tougher in Foxboro, so expect a win here, even with head coach Chan Gailey's revamped offense.

The Pats travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders next. The Raiders will turn this into a dogfight, because they get after the passer well and like to run the ball. However, they face a beefed up defensive line, and they don't have Nnamdi Asomugha to shut down one side of the field. On the other hand, the game is sandwiched between two division games for the Patriots, all of which makes it a difficult game to figure. But something tells me Bill Belichick has a few tricks up his sleeve for Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell, so a close one but a Patriots win.

Second Quarter:

Next up is a home game against the Jets, and frankly it looks like a win. New York plays Rex Ryan's old team, the Baltimore Ravens, the week before, and that will be an emotionally draining one where he pulls out all the stops for the win. And the Ravens are a tough, physical team, the Jets second in two weeks (they play the Raiders in Oakland the week before). Depending on how the Patriots new secondary gels, this could be a blowout, but don't expect that.

Then comes a very dangerous game. The Cowboys have a bye week and then stop by Foxboro for a 4:15 game. Here's the reason for concern -- remember that Rob Ryan (Rex's brother) is the defensive coordinator for Dallas. And the last time he had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots, his Cleveland Browns handed the Pats a 34-14 loss (just last year, in fact). There is nothing other than that to indicate a Cowboys victory, but I'm predicting one anyway. Last year at this time I thought the Browns would be no problem, but when I realized the situation closer to the day I re-thought it and warned people to be careful of the Browns. We'll see how it works out this time.

Pats have a bye, and then face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. As usual, they will prevail -- Tom Brady owns the Steelers, home, away, regular season, and playoffs. Besides the Steelers play their nemesis (the Ravens) the next week, and they'll be distracted by that division tilt more than they should.

The Giants visit Foxboro the next week, for a rematch of Super Bowl XLII. Whether or not the Patriots have revenge on their minds, the Giants defense is a mass of injuries and their receiving corps is sub-par. Looks like another win... but then so did that Super Bowl :(

Third Quarter:

Jets at home, a team desperate to beat the Patriots and validate all their coach's tough talk -- it is tough to sweep division foes who are evenly matched. New York plays four days later in Denver, and they will probably lose that one, but Ryan puts everything into this game and gets the win over the Patriots.

Patriots over the Chiefs in a Foxboro Monday Night game is one of the easier predictions of the schedule. Kansas City has a tough division game the week before, and the Patriots are a superior team. Bill Belichick also knows a thing or two about how to stop the KC quarterback -- some guy named Matt Cassel; maybe you heard of him.

Pats then travel on a short week to face the Eagles and their ultra-talented secondary and explosive offense. Short week, on the road, facing a great defensive secondary and offensive play-makers all of the field -- so why do I feel like the Patriots will win this one? Philly has a division prime time game the week before and a Thursday night road game in Seattle after. And the Patriots have essentially bye weeks before and after (against Kansas City and a Manningless Indy). And something tells me that Michael Vick won't be running much against Vince Wilfork, Albert Haynesworth, and company. I'm going with my gut -- Patriots win.

The Colts come to Gillette next, and without Peyton Manning (or with a just-returned Manning) there is no way Indy leaves with a win. Etch this one in stone, Pats victory.

Fourth Quarter:

Like Oakland before them, Washington has consecutive home games against the Jets and Patriots. In both cases, that's a tough row to hoe, and they follow the Patriots game with a critical division game against the Giants. Rex Grossman should be Rex Grossman by then (with his 0-1 record and zero touchdowns and 3 interceptions against the Patriots). Pats should get the win.

New England never beats the Broncos in Denver -- mostly doesn't matter how talented each team is or who is coaching them. So mark down a loss on December 18. And make other plans for the day, unless you are a hardcore fan there's no reason to watch the Pats falter there again.

The Miami Dolphins show up after that for their annual wintertime slaughter at the hands of their more talented division foe.

And the Bills have only one chance to win the last game of the season -- if it means nothing to the Patriots. Otherwise, Chan Gailey's offense will be grounded by bad weather and the Patriots, who thrive in bad conditions, should prevail.

Summary:

So that looks like a 13-3 finish, and 14-2 if they take care of business against the Cowboys. Anything north of 12-4 virtually guarantees a playoff berth, so they are in good shape to return to the post-season, injuries and the unexpected notwithstanding.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Rex Ryan lost two AFC Championship Games in the last two years. The Patriots haven't lost that many in franchise history -- losing just once in 51 years. Congratulations, Rex!!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Patriots 2011 Kicking/Coaching: Little Change

2011-09-11T13:53:00.000-04:00

Changes to the kicking game mostly revolve around new kickoff rules, whereas coaching changes are virtually non-existent.

Significant Arrivals: long snapper Danny Aiken

Significant Departures: receiver Brandon Tate

1. Ruling Authority

In order to protect players from injury, the NFL made two significant changes to the kickoff: (1) teams kickoff from the 35 instead of the 30; and (2) players on the kicking team can't get more than a five-yard running start on the play, so they can't line up any further back than the 30 yard-line.

The rule immediately resulted in more touch backs, and reduced the value of good kickoff returners. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski's kicks went deep into the end zone, and even though the Giants returned all four in their game, their average starting position on those drives was inside the 15 yard line. Gostkowski got touch backs when kicking from the 30 yard line, so expect a lot more of them this season.

The second result of the changes was Tate being cut. He never distinguished himself as a receiver, so when this rule reduced his impact as a returner, he became expendable.

2. Three-man Operation

The Patriots are on their third long-snapper in two seasons, which is a little strange because they've had good luck there over the years. Jake Ingram was rock solid in 2009, but got the "yips" halfway through 2010 and was replaced by Matt Katula. Then Katula nailed every snap for the rest of the year, but he was cut and replaced by new snapper Aiken.

Through it all, Gostkowski and punter Zoltan Mesko continue unphased by the changes around them. Gostkowski is the most accurate kicker in team history, and Mesko was very good on punts and is also the holder on field goals, and he handled that role flawlessly last year.

3. Promotion Earned?

Perhaps the biggest coaching change was the official coronation of Bill O'Brien as the offensive coordinator. But the promotion makes one wonder what he did to earn it.

Sure, the Patriots offense topped the league in points scored last year. But in the playoffs, when the games count for so much more, O'Brien failed to adjust his scheme until too late in the game, continuing to throw against a defense designed to stop the pass.

The Patriots did not promote O'Brien in 2010, perhaps thinking he didn't have the experience or hadn't shown them enough to merit the title. The playoff loss to the Jets did nothing to increase his stature in my mind; so I'm not sure why the Patriots decided to give him a title he might not have earned at this point.

4. Summary

Not much to see here folks. Unless you like the touch back, you won't like the new kickoff rules, but if it reduces the number of spinal cord injuries then it's a good thing. The new snapper did well in the preseason, so no big change there. And we won't know if offensive coordinator O'Brien has improved until/unless he shows the ability to adjust quickly to schemes that catch him off-guard -- especially in the playoffs.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. Still 0-0!

Patriots 2011 Defense: Value Add

2011-09-11T10:18:00.000-04:00

The defensive side of the ball will see most of the changes for the 2011 Patriots. They brought in significant talent to bolster the defensive line and will get a key veteran back in the secondary. But note: for all the hand-wringing about this side of the ball, the Patriots ranked eighth in the league in points allowed last year.

Here is what to expect from the defense this season.

Significant Arrivals: defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, defensive end Andre Carter, defensive end Shaun Ellis, defensive end Mark Anderson.

Significant Departures: linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, defensive end Ty Warren, defensive end Gerard Warren, safety Brandon Meriweather, safety James Sanders, corner Jonathan Wilhite, corner Darius Butler.

1. Talent Show

The improved talent on the defensive line is unmistakable. In the preseason, Carter got around the corner and disrupted the pocket play-after-play. Haynesworth showed up-and-down play in his short stint, but his attitude seems right and he is as destructive force as there is in the league when he is motivated. And Ellis and Anderson were okay in limited reps, though Ellis battled nagging injuries.

Add the new guys to Pro Bowler Vince Wilfork, returning team stalwart Mike Wright, and improving young players Myron Pryor and Kyle Love, and this is clearly the strength of the defense. And if the preseason showed anything it is the Patriots will use their front four to collapse the pocket from the inside instead of depending on linebackers to do it from the outside.

Also, with the new talent up front, linebackers Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, and surprising Dane Fletcher caused real confusion when they mixed into the blitz packages.

2. Secondary: Rebirth or Implosion?

Corner Leigh Bodden returns to a secondary with second-year sensation Devin McCourty at the other corner, last year's other starting corner Kyle Arrington at nickel back, and playmaker Patrick Chung at safety. If McCourty remains consistent and Bodden recaptures his 2009 magic, it sounds like a tough year for opposing quarterbacks. However, there are questions most everywhere you look.

Depth could be a problem. The Patriots cut longtime solid safety Sanders, inconsistent but talented third-year safety Meriweather, and last year's third safety Jarred Page, leaving them with no proven players to pair with Chung. Frankly, I expected them to pick up a free agent safety once they cut both starters from last year, but no such player was signed.

Additionally, they let go of under-performing former starting corner Butler, and nickel/dime back Wilhite, which makes the secondary look mighty thin. Rookie draftee Ras-I Dowling might help at corner or safety, but we saw little of him in the preseason so there's no way to know what he brings. Years ago, the team went with rookie corner Eugene Wilson at safety and won two consecutive Super Bowls, so they obviously know what they are doing.

Maybe they are counting on the rebuilt defensive line and blitzes to make the secondary's job easy. But given how many of their chips they put into the pot this season, they might have been better off getting either Ellis or Haynesworth, and pairing that with a better safety. We won't know for sure how things shake out Monday night, but given the commitment they made to winning this year it better work.

3. Philosophical Debate

Head coach Bill Belichick gets testy when people wonder whether the Patriots will play more 4-3 or 3-4 this year. The question has relevancy to how the team will do, but there's no sense asking Belichick about it. It's clear -- with a thin linebacking corps and abundant talent on the defensive line, it will be "4-3 or bust!"

The real change isn't player alignment, it's in the new attacking style of defense, which hasn't been seen around here since mid-2007. With pass-rushing specialists and new blitzes in place, they are attacking the line of scrimmage rather than trying to control it. But the key to disrupting the offense still begins and ends with that undermanned secondary.

Over the years, Belichick hesitated to blitz when he doesn't trust his secondary to cover well. He hates giving up big plays, preferring to make the other team earn every yard the hard way. The Patriots start the season with enough talent at their starting corner positions, but perhaps not enough depth there or enough talent/experience at safety.

If the secondary comes through when the Patriots blitz, you will see it all year. If not, no question they will back off the attacking style until they get the secondary right. Like Mike Tyson said: "Everybody has a plan until they get hit." If other teams hit the Patriots with big plays, the attacking philosophy might be the first casualty of the season.

4. Linebackers An Endangered Species?

It was one thing to let got of under-performing safeties and eschew signing any free agent help in the secondary. But the Patriots completely ignored their need at linebacker.

At the moment, it's Jerod Mayo and a bunch of young, unproven, sometimes scary-to-watch players. Gary Guyton is better covering the pass or rushing the quarterback, but lacks the size to hold up against the run. Brandon Spikes barely saw the field in the preseason. Jermaine Cunningham looks just as lost as ever. And newcomer A.J. Edds hasn't been with the team long enough to do much of anything (he was signed last week).

It isn't all bad; second-year inside linebacker Dane Fletcher showed good read-and-react ability in the preseason. He rarely got caught out of position and made several tackles for a loss, blowing up one running play before it ever got started. And even though Rob Ninkovich is listed as a defensive end now, he is more of a linebacker, and was solid (if not spectacular) last year.

However, much like the situation in the secondary, the team probably would have been better off getting at least one dependable linebacker to compliment all the brought in for the defensive line. The talent is not spread evenly on this defense. That might not matter, especially if the line can dominate. But it's no small risk to leave yourself short-handed at both linebacker and safety, especially going into an season with such high expectations.

5. Summary

To cover for potential problems in the secondary, look for either Dowling or Arrington to get time at safety this season. Both have the size and competitive spirit to stay with larger tight ends and cover the third-best receiver in a pinch. As for linebacker -- with huge and talented linemen taking up blockers, they should be fine against the run. The talent drop-off from Mayo to the rest of the linebackers will show itself against the pass, if the D-line can't get to the quarterback.

But I expect all of this to be moot. The defensive line is talented and motivated enough to cover up a lot of other problems. The Patriots kept 11 linemen, so they can rotate them to keep them fresh and healthy throughout the season. And if that plan works out, the Patriots defense should join a dominant offense in the ranks of the league's best.

Statistical Oddity of the Day: For all the bluster about the vaunted Jets defense of "genius" Rex Ryan, the Patriots allowed just 9 more points than the Jets (313 to 304).

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Patriots 2011 Offense: Steady As She Goes

2011-09-11T00:46:00.001-04:00

Don't expect much change from the Patriots offense this year. In 2010, they led the NFL in scoring, the only team to top 500 points for the year. And they lost virtually no one, and added only some complimentary pieces and building blocks for the future.

Here is what you might expect from the 2011 Patriots offense.

Significant Departures: guard Stephen Neal, wide receiver Brandon Tate

Significant Arrivals: guard Brian Waters, tackle Nate Solder, wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, and running back Stevan Ridley.

1. Sophomore receivers

Second-year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski burst on the scene last year, combining for 87 catches, 1109 yards, and 16 touchdowns. To this point, Hernandez followed that up with an excellent preseason, proving Tom Brady's most reliable target. Gronkowski caught just one pass, but blocked like a beast in both the run and pass games, and according to reports will be targeted often in the red zone once the regular season starts.

Taylor Price played only one game as a rookie in 2010 and had just 3 catches for 41 yards, not much production for a player drafted between Gronkowski and Hernandez. As the team enters the 2011 season, Price represents their best hope for a deep threat. He has the speed to do it; does he have the knowledge of the offense and the work ethic? Stay tuned.

The second-year performances of these three receivers are key, and the Patriots hope to avoid the kind of sophomore slump that has hit some of their successful young starters in the past. Hernandez and Gronkowski look like sure bets; but Price was up-and-down in the preseason. However, if Price can step up his game in the regular season, he possesses the speed to give the Patriots a true deep threat, something they did not address in the off-season.

2. Ridley... believe it or not

Ridley averaged six yards rushing this preseason and learned the pass blocking scheme even quicker than Danny Woodhead. His balance and nose for the end zone make him a threat the Patriots haven't had since Corey Dillon.

And now that I completely oversold him, here is the rub. He didn't play much after the first preseason game. And though he could help the Patriots this season, in crunch time they relied on veterans Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

If Ridley is healthy, the Patriots should ride him as far as he lasts. He has the cutting ability of Woodhead, the burst of a wide receiver, the strength of Sammy Morris, and the nose for the end zone of Green-Ellis. And if used properly, he is the only new player who can provide a different dimension to the offense.

3. Oh no, Ocho!

New wide receiver Chad Ochocinco was targeted 10 times this preseason, and had just 3 receptions for 23 yards to show for it. He often looked lost, and though he improved as the games went on, his grasp of the offense didn't develop quickly enough to help much when the season begins. Not exactly what the team was looking for when they traded for him.

As mentioned he improved from game one to game four, and that improvement should continue. Brady will have to resist the temptation to target Ochochino when he isn't open, and the team might have to run some safe routes for him as he works his way into the rotation.

No questioning Ochocinco's talent or effort. But remember Joey Galloway was a veteran who was sure to help in the passing game, and he flamed out completely and was a non-factor. Don't expect the same from Ochocinco -- he's at least getting better. But don't expect anything spectacular from him until at least game four of the regular season.

One other thing to bear in mind: even if Ochocinco does a great job this year, he is nothing but a slight improvement over Deion Branch. Ochocinco lacks the speed to run past defenders, and though he's taller than Branch, he runs the same underneath, quick out routes as the other wide receivers and tight ends.

4. Summary

The Patriots offense didn't need much improving, but counting on second-year players to duplicate or exceed their rookie seasons can be a risky game. Again, by all accounts Woodhead, Hernandez, and Gronkowski will be at least as good in 2011. However, don't count on Price (or fourth-year wideout Matthew Slater) to stretch the field with their speed.

Ridley and fellow rookie Shane Vereen could be sparks at running back, and the offensive line is a bit unsettled but with plenty of talent and one of the best assistant coaches in the league (Dante Scarneccia). And Brady continues his excellent play, with probably his best campaign in 2010. Don't expect a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio -- no chance he repeats that -- but it's a quarterback's league, so enjoy the show while it lasts.

All of which means more of the same... which isn't all that bad when you think about it.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

PPS. But not for long -- first game tomorrow night!

2011 Lions Thrash 2010 Patriots, 34-10

2011-08-29T00:13:00.000-04:00

What would happen if the 2011 Detroit Lions played the 2010 Patriots? Well, that scenario took place in Saturday’s preseason game, and the match up quickly turned into a mismatch. The Patriots appeared very mortal in a 34-10 loss to a thoroughly dominant and motivated Detroit Lions team. The Patriots left most of their significant 2011 additions at home for the game, and the advantage clearly went to this year’s Lions squad.

On Saturday, the Patriots started exactly two players who were not on the roster last year: work-in-progress receiver Chad Ochocinco and part-time defensive end Mark Anderson. They did get some playing time for rookie offensive tackle Nate Solder and free agent defensive end Andre Carter. But no Albert Haynesworth or Shaun Ellis on the defensive line, no Leigh Bodden or Ras-I Dowling in the secondary, and no Stevan Ridley or Shane Vareen in the running back rotation.

And so it went that 2011 Detroit’s starters posted a decisive 27-10 beat down of the 2010 Patriots starters. Which makes it pretty clear that if Matthew Stafford had played last Thanksgiving the Lions would likely have walked off the field with a victory.

The more important question is what this game tells us about both teams. In a nutshell, here is what I learned:

The Lions aren’t a 16-0 squad (sorry Ndamukong Suh), but if Stafford stays healthy, they are a legitimate playoff contender. The Lions quarterback makes great decisions and has excellent pocket presence, and with a lot of talent at wide receiver, the lack of a go-to running back should not matter in the pass happy NFL.

They are also fast and big on defense, with a head coach who oversaw the best Tennessee Titans’ defenses (Jim Schwartz) and a very talented defensive coordinator (Gunther Cunningham). Their front four, lead by Suh, created havoc on most every Patriots passing play, and most of the time Detroit’s defensive line will make up for what they lack behind them.

The Lions did not excel running the ball or stopping the run last year, and appear headed for the same short-comings in 2011. But the NFL is a quarterback’s league, so if Stafford stays upright for 16 games the Lions they should contend for a playoff berth. Their biggest problem is their division, which has both participants from the 2010 NFC Championship Game: the Bears and Packers. But the rest of the NFC divisions appear weak enough to allow one (or even two) NFC North teams in as wild card entrants.

As for the Patriots, their talent grab on the defensive line won’t amount to much if they can’t get the secondary healthy and playing together. The Lions offense did not slow down when edge rusher Carter entered the game or when the Patriots blitzed cornerbacks to get pressure. Stafford and backup quarterback Shaun Hill simply went with short routes and quick releases to defeat the blitz.

Last Saturday’s secondary looked a lot like last year’s, with Devin McCourty holding his own against one receiver and Kyle Arrington, Darius Butler, and Jonathan Wilhite giving up play after play. On Saturday, Stafford went 12 for 14, 200 yards, 2 touchdowns, and completed passes to 8 different receivers -- in the first half. That “bend and then break” defense probably looked too familiar (and a little frightening) to Patriots fans.

New England will likely get their pass protection schemes straightened out, and there is no indication that Bodden and McCourty won’t start the season together. Add in either Ellis or Haynesworth to an already improved defensive line, and the 2011 Patriots would have given the 2011 Lions a much tougher time.

This game wasn’t exactly a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. But it showed that Schwartz has remade the Lions to compete with one of the league’s best teams. Pretty good progress for a team that too often used to compete for the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.

- Scott

Patriots vs. Lions -- what to watch for

2011-08-27T15:22:00.000-04:00

If you live in Patriots country, Hurricane Irene will probably force you inside for the evening, so here are four things to watch in tonight’s preseason game against the Lions.

1. Injuries at running back make it difficult to predict who might play, but no matter who is on the field, there will be something to watch for. Impressive rookie Stevan Ridley makes quick cuts and has excellent burst and down field moves. But if he plays, watch how he does in pass protection. If he learns his role in protecting Tom Brady well, he could be your opening day starter.

Fellow rookie Shane Vereen appears nearly recovered enough from a hamstring injury and he could play against Detroit. If he gets on the field, watch how quickly he cuts and reaches full speed, both would be problems if the hamstring isn’t ready. Also, if he plays with the starting unit, he should average over five yards a carry, because the Patriots offensive line has been tearing it up this preseason.

If Danny Woodhead gets to play, keep an eye on him in pass protection or blocking down field. After his concussion last week, he might shy away from contact instinctively, though one would not expect that, given his well-known toughness. Also, he has averaged eight yards per carry this preseason, so track that closely and you’ll know whether or not he’s a step slow.

2. The defensive secondary has to perform well, and the Lions should be a good test. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill torched the Patriots in the first half of last year’s Thanksgiving game: 15 for 22, 126 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions. And this time, it will be starter Matthew Stafford under center, and both teams should play starters for most of the first half.

The main question is whether or not cornerbacks Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden can recapture the skills of their best years with the Patriots (2010 and 2009, respectively). Both saw their first preseason action last week against the Buccaneers, and neither got beaten for anything big. However, the Patriots defensive line dominated that game, so the corners didn’t have to extend themselves much at all.

One other question in the secondary is the status of the safety position.. Beyond Patrick Chung, the competition for the second spot is wide open, with sometime starter James Sanders nursing a hamstring injury and annual disappointment Brandon Meriweather living up (or down) to his reputation. Undrafted free agent Sergio Brown got more reps a practice this week, and it might be telling who gets more time with the first team against the Lions -- since the third preseason game is often considered a warm-up for the regular season.

3. At receiver, Chad Ochocino looked lost on the field last week, and he needs to show progress, if not play perfectly. He is not as central to the Patriots success as some have said, but he has to prove he’s getting the hang of the Patriots complex passing game, or the team might not keep him around. And missing routes and then looking dumbfounded on the sideline again won’t help his cause.

Taylor Price is reportedly healthy again, and if he can duplicate his game against Jacksonville, he might get himself a roster spot in a very competitive receiver race. And that would give him the chance to show his speed and become the deep threat the Patriots really need. (Just don’t expect much of that tonight -- the Lions pass rush will probably dictate a short passing game.)

4. On the defensive line, slight injuries and typical Patriots sleight of hand make it very tough to know who will play from week to week. Expect either Albert Haynesworth and/or Shaun Ellis to make an appearance tonight, and watch specifically if they can move the line back toward the quarterback (assuming they get in the game). Also monitor the progress of Andre Carter -- do the Lions game plan specifically to contain him, or will he get single coverage again.

Perhaps the biggest problem on defensive line is the numbers game, especially for veteran Mike Wright and recent signee Ellis. Expect Albert Haynesworth to make the team, based solely on potential even if he skips the entire preseason. But if Ellis or Wright can’t get on the field, it will be tough to keep them and let Carter or Eric Moore go based on performance so far. And also expect the team to keep improving Myron Pryor and second-year pro Jermaine Cunningham.

Beyond any injuries, those are a few things I’ll be watching tonight. Enjoy the game.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Secondary Key To Patriots 2011 Defense

2011-08-25T07:56:00.000-04:00

Despite all the high-profile moves the Patriots have made on the defensive line, improvement in the secondary remains key to their more aggressive 4-3 defense. Head coach Bill Belichick traditionally does not blitz when he doesn’t trust the secondary. And when he doesn’t blitz, the lack of pressure usually leads to no playoffs or an early playoff exit.

By now we’ve all heard the big new names on the defensive line: Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, and the apparently unstoppable Andre Carter. And with more talent on the line than at linebacker, the Patriots will play more 4-3 than 3-4. But before Belichick will throw extra players at the passer, he will have to trust his secondary; and that is not a guarantee.

Devin McCourty returns after a sensational rookie campaign that saw him named a cornerback on the Pro Bowl roster. However, as noted in a previous column, second-year players often struggle in New England. McCourty hasn’t seen much action in the preseason, but he will have to play at least 85% as well as last year if the secondary is to command the respect of the head coach.

The Patriots also return Leigh Bodden, by far the Patriots best cornerback in 2009. Though he had only five interceptions that year, he was solid in coverage and run support, and he was expected to pair with McCourty last year. However, that plan was nixed by a shoulder injury. Bodden played reasonably well in limited action in the most recent preseason game, a win over Tampa Bay, but he needs to show more before declaring he is back to his 2009 form.

If both McCourty and Bodden are healthy, that would move often-overmatched Kyle Arrington to the nickel position, which is certainly a better fit. Arrington competes like a first-stringer, but he lacks the skills to cover the No. 1 or No. 2 NFL receivers on most teams. And given the number of spread offenses the Patriots face this year, it will help to have the experienced Arrington covering slot receivers and occasionally blitzing himself.

As for the rest, you can throw a blanket over Jonathan Wilhite and Darius Butler, though if forced to choose I would guess that Wilhite will stay and Butler might get cut. And rookie Ras-I Dowling has yet to see the field in the preseason, so there’s no way of knowing whether or not he will contribute this year.

In addition to the concerns at corner, there is also uncertainty at the safety position. Brandon Meriweather, never progressed into the play-making strong safety the Patriots envisioned when drafting him in the first round in 2007. Even last year he gave up touchdowns by taking bad angles, and he guessed wrong on run/pass too often for a fourth-year player. And with reports that undrafted Sergio Brown is getting more reps in practice, the team could be ushering Meriweather to the bench... or even the door.

Although losing Meriweather would hurt the Patriots’ depth, they are fortunate that Patrick Chung looks ready to step into the starting role. Chung is a dynamic play maker who understands the defense well enough to make secondary adjustments on the fly. His reckless style has led to some nagging injuries; but if Chung can stay healthy, no one questions his ability -- his read-and-react skills and tackling ability are among the best on the team.

Free safety sees the return of James Sanders, a veteran with six years in the Patriots system. Sanders is a solid, if not spectacular, player who will almost never be caught out of position but will rarely make a great play in a big moment. If Chung is at the other safety spot, then Sanders is more than capable of holding down this one.

Jarrad Page and Brown would compete for a roster spot behind Sanders. Page was unimpressive in 2010, so watch out if he gets lots of playing time. The jury is still out on Brown; so his preseason performance will bear watching.

None of these questions mean the Patriots defense is in trouble, or that the new defensive linemen are irrelevant. But you won’t know for certain how the Patriots will utilize all their new linemen until the questions in the secondary are answered. In the past, Belichick has changed philosophy mid-season when injuries to the secondary necessitated it.

If you watched the preseason win over Tampa Bay, and were impressed with the attacking defense, then you’d better hope the secondary proves its worth. Because if they don’t, the 2011 defense will resemble a 4-3 version of the 2010 defense -- and that did not end well for the Patriots or their fans.

So don't wait for Asante Samuel, or Ty Law, or... gulp, Otis Smith to walk through that door. How well the young defensive backs progress is key to how often the Patriots will get after the quarterback, and that is key to much impact the new linemen will have.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Yooour New England Patriots!

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Pats/Giants Super Bowl Breakdown Links

Patriots Survive and Advance, 23-20

Patriots vs. Ravens Preview

Patriots Dispatch Broncos 45-10

Patriots vs. Broncos Preview

Patriots 2011 Regular Season Awards

Top 5 Patriots Stories of 2011

Patriots Smoke Bills 49-21

Patriots Escape With 27-24 Win

Patriots Best Broncos, 41-23

Patriots Skin Washington, 34-27

Patriots Hold Off Late Rally For 31-24 Victory

Patriots Roar Back To Beat Eagles 38-20

Patriots Dispatch Chiefs With Ease, 34-3

Patriots Outclass Jets in 37-16 Win

Giants Get Last Laugh in 24-20 Win

Steelers Decipher (and Defeat) Patriots, 25-17

New Look Steelers Could Finally Give Patriots Trouble

Ochocinco Just Doesn't Matter

Patriots Edge Cowboys 20-16 On Late Brady TD

Patriots Overwhelm Jets 30-21

Patriots Roll Over Raiders, 31-19

Bills Comeback, Beat Patriots 34-31

Fixing Football: Fake Injuries Edition

Patriots Capitalize on Chargers Miscues, Win 35-21

Brady Dominates, Patriots Prevail 38-24

Patriots 2011 The Schedule: Where Are The Losses?

Patriots 2011 Kicking/Coaching: Little Change

Patriots 2011 Defense: Value Add

Patriots 2011 Offense: Steady As She Goes

2011 Lions Thrash 2010 Patriots, 34-10

Patriots vs. Lions -- what to watch for

Secondary Key To Patriots 2011 Defense